Skip to main page content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

Dot gov

The .gov means it’s official.
Federal government websites often end in .gov or .mil. Before sharing sensitive information, make sure you’re on a federal government site.

Https

The site is secure.
The https:// ensures that you are connecting to the official website and that any information you provide is encrypted and transmitted securely.

Access keys NCBI Homepage MyNCBI Homepage Main Content Main Navigation
. 2009 Oct;467(10):2606-12.
doi: 10.1007/s11999-009-0834-6. Epub 2009 Apr 10.

Future young patient demand for primary and revision joint replacement: national projections from 2010 to 2030

Steven M Kurtz  1 , Edmund Lau, Kevin Ong, Ke Zhao, Michael Kelly, Kevin J Bozic
Affiliations

Future young patient demand for primary and revision joint replacement: national projections from 2010 to 2030

Steven M Kurtz et al. Clin Orthop Relat Res. 2009 Oct.

Abstract

Previous projections of total joint replacement (TJR) volume have not quantified demand for TJR surgery in young patients (< 65 years old). We developed projections for demand of TJR for the young patient population in the United States. The Nationwide Inpatient Sample was used to identify primary and revision TJRs between 1993 and 2006, as a function of age, gender, race, and census region. Surgery prevalence was modeled using Poisson regression, allowing for different rates for each population subgroup over time. If the historical growth trajectory of joint replacement surgeries continues, demand for primary THA and TKA among patients less than 65 years old was projected to exceed 50% of THA and TKA patients of all ages by 2011 and 2016, respectively. Patients less than 65 years old were projected to exceed 50% of the revision TKA patient population by 2011. This study underscores the major contribution that young patients may play in the future demand for primary and revision TJR surgery.

Level of evidence: Level II, prognostic study. See Guidelines for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence.

PubMed Disclaimer

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
The projected relative proportion of the younger patient population (< 65 y) for primary and revision total joint replacement between 2010 and 2030 is shown.
Fig. 2A–B
Fig. 2A–B
Historical incidence of primary total hip arthroplasty (A) and primary total knee arthroplasty (B) from 1993–2006, superimposed with previous projections [6], and the updated projections from the current study. The dotted lines represent the 95% CI for the projections.
Fig. 3A–B
Fig. 3A–B
Historical incidence of revision total hip arthroplasty (A) and revision total knee arthroplasty (B) from 1993–2006, superimposed with previous projections [6], and the updated projections from the current study. The dotted lines represent the 95% CI for the projections.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

    1. {'text': '', 'ref_index': 1, 'ids': [{'type': 'DOI', 'value': '10.2106/JBJS.E.00614', 'is_inner': False, 'url': 'https://doi.org/10.2106/jbjs.e.00614'}, {'type': 'PubMed', 'value': '16595459', 'is_inner': True, 'url': 'https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/16595459/'}]}
    2. Bozic KJ, Morshed S, Silverstein MD, Rubash HE, Kahn JG. Use of cost-effectiveness analysis to evaluate new technologies in orthopaedics. The case of alternative bearing surfaces in total hip arthroplasty. J Bone Joint Surg Am. 2006;88:706–714. - PubMed
    1. Charnley J. Arthroplasty of the hip: A new operation. Lancet. 1961;I:1129–1132. - PubMed
    1. Houchens RL, Elixhauser A. Using the HCUP Nationwide Inpatient Sample to Estimate Trends (Updated for 1988–2004). http://www.hcup-us.ahrq.gov/reports/methods.jsp. Accessed 24 October, 2005.
    1. {'text': '', 'ref_index': 1, 'ids': [{'type': 'DOI', 'value': '10.1002/art.21420', 'is_inner': False, 'url': 'https://doi.org/10.1002/art.21420'}, {'type': 'PubMed', 'value': '16320340', 'is_inner': True, 'url': 'https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/16320340/'}]}
    2. Jain NB, Higgins LD, Ozumba D, Guller U, Cronin M, Pietrobon R, Katz JN. Trends in epidemiology of knee arthroplasty in the United States, 1990–2000. Arthritis Rheum. 2005;52:3928–3933. - PubMed
    1. {'text': '', 'ref_index': 1, 'ids': [{'type': 'DOI', 'value': '10.1302/0301-620X.86B7.14358', 'is_inner': False, 'url': 'https://doi.org/10.1302/0301-620x.86b7.14358'}, {'type': 'PubMed', 'value': '15342752', 'is_inner': True, 'url': 'https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/15342752/'}]}
    2. Katz JN, Barrett J, Mahomed NN, Baron JA, Wright RJ, Losina E. Association between hospital and surgeon procedure volume and the outcomes of total knee replacement. J Bone Joint Surg Am. 2004;86:1909–1916. - PubMed