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Review
. 2009 Jul;105(1):17-24.
doi: 10.1007/s00436-009-1447-4. Epub 2009 May 6.

Changing climate-changing pathogens: Toxoplasma gondii in North-Western Europe

Bastiaan G Meerburg  1 , Aize Kijlstra
Affiliations
Review

Changing climate-changing pathogens: Toxoplasma gondii in North-Western Europe

Bastiaan G Meerburg et al. Parasitol Res. 2009 Jul.

Abstract

In this review, we describe the effects of global climate change for one specific pathogen: the parasite Toxoplasma gondii. It is postulated that an increase of T. gondii prevalence in humans can occur in some regions of North-Western Europe as a result of changing environmental conditions. Such a change can be predicted by using Global Climate Change models. We have elaborated such a prediction for one scenario (SRES A1) by using one specific model (CCSR/NRIES) as an example. Next to environmental factors, also anthropogenic factors may contribute to increased prevalence of T. gondii in this region. In order to counter the potential severe consequences of a potential increase resulting from the combination of climatic and anthropogenic factors, there is an urgent need for the development of a human vaccine. Until a vaccine that offers complete protection is developed, the emphasis should be on treatment optimization and prevention.

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Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Projected changes in annual precipitation in case of a B2 scenario. Source: HadCM3 model, Hadley Centre, United Kingdom
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
Total precipitation in North-Western Europe as calculated by the CCSR (Center for Climate System Research, University of Tokyo) and NIES (National Institute for Environmental Studies) model under a SRES A1 scenario. Presented is the total mean precipitation in period from 1970 to 1999 (a), and the projected total mean precipitation from 2010 to 2039 (b) and 2040–2069 (c). Figures obtained from www.ipcc-data.org
Fig. 3
Fig. 3
Mean temperatures in North-Western Europe as calculated by the CCSR (Center for Climate System Research, University of Tokyo) and NIES (National Institute for Environmental Studies) model under a SRES A1 scenario. Presented are mean temperatures in period from 1970 to 1999 (a), and the projected mean temperatures from 2010 to 2039 (b) and 2040–2069 (c). Figures obtained from www.ipcc-data.org
Fig. 4
Fig. 4
Expected increases in T. gondii prevalence in North-Western Europe towards 2069 based upon the combination of climatic conditions from Figs. 2 and 3. The dotted bright green areas indicate a small increase in T. gondii prevalence as a result of climatic change, pink areas a limited increase, and red areas a substantial increase
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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