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. 2009 Sep;20(9):1013-21.
doi: 10.1007/s00192-009-0903-0. Epub 2009 May 15.

Prediction model and prognostic index to estimate clinically relevant pelvic organ prolapse in a general female population

Marijke C Ph Slieker-ten Hove  1 , Annelies L Pool-Goudzwaard, Marinus J C Eijkemans, Regine P M Steegers-Theunissen, Curt W Burger, Mark E Vierhout
Affiliations

Prediction model and prognostic index to estimate clinically relevant pelvic organ prolapse in a general female population

Marijke C Ph Slieker-ten Hove et al. Int Urogynecol J Pelvic Floor Dysfunct. 2009 Sep.

Erratum in

  • Int Urogynecol J Pelvic Floor Dysfunct. 2010 Mar;21(3):387-8

Abstract

Introduction and hypothesis: Estimation on prevalence and distribution of pelvic organ prolapse (POP) signs in a general female population is difficult. We therefore developed and validated a prediction model and prognostic instrument.

Methods: Questionnaires were sent to a general female population (45-85 years). A random sample underwent vaginal examination for POP (POPQ). A prediction model was developed using multivariate analysis and validated in a subgroup of participants.

Results: Positive questionnaire-response rate was 46.8% (1,397 of 2,979). From the questionnaire group, 649 women were vaginally examined (46.5%). Prevalence of clinically relevant POP was 21%. Multivariate analysis demonstrated significantly higher odds ratios on the report of vaginal bulging, parity > or = 2 and a mother with POP. The receiver operating characteristic curve showed areas under the curve of 0.672 and 0.640.

Conclusions: The prevalence of POP at or beyond the hymen could be estimated in a general female population using our prediction model with 17 questions and our POP score chart with eight questions.

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Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Flowchart of the study
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
Receiver operating characteristics of the multivariate analysis with the area under the curve of the stages 2A, 2B and 2C
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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