Birth spacing patterns and correlates in Shaanxi, China

Abstract

This study shows that most women in Shaanxi Province, China try to have their first birth as soon as possible after their first marriage, and that the length of the interval between marriage and first birth is strongly correlated with the woman's age at first marriage. The length of the second and third birth intervals and the likelihood of going on to have a second or third birth are strongly influenced by the sex composition of children already born, the survival time of the child initiating the interval, the duration of breastfeeding, and the woman's occupation. There is significant regional variation in the length of birth intervals and in the prevalence of second and third births in Shaanxi. The findings indicate that China's one-child policy is far from being universally accepted in Shaanxi, including its urban areas. The persistence of many social, economic, institutional, and cultural factors promoting high fertility poses many obstacles to further fertility decline.

PIP: A researcher applied data from the 1985 In-Depth Fertility Survey to Cox's hazard regression model and the actuarial life table method to determine birth spacing patterns and their correlates in Shaanxi Province in China. In the 1970s, China encouraged later marriage, longer birth spacing, and fewer births after which fertility declined quickly in Shaanxi (5.5-2.9 between 1970 and 1979). Fertility hovered around 2.6 in the 1980s, however, when China promoted the one child policy. Newly married women tended not to use effective contraceptives in Shaanxi so 1st birth intervals bascially depended on fecundity. In fact, the median 1st birth interval was only 14.2 months. In addition, woman's age at 1st marriage had a very significant effect on the length of the 1st birth interval (p.001). Further 71.5% had a 2nd birth within 5 years of the 1st birth (50.3% urban and 76.9% rural). The 2nd birth interval was much longer than the 1st birth interval, however (38 months: 55.7 urban and 34.5 rural). Breast feeding played a significant role in having a 2nd birth (p.01) and 3rd birth (p.001). Further if the index child was a girl or if the 1st 2 children were girls, the women were highly likely to have another child (p.001) in hopes of having a son. Women's occupation also played a considerable role in having a 2nd or 3rd birth (p.001). For example, an agricultural worker or housewife were 3.6 times more likely to have a 2nd birth than nonagricultural workers. The death of the index child significantly affected the probability of having a subsequent birth for parity 1 women (p.01) but not for those of parity 2. Regional variations in the length of birth intervals and in occurrence of 2nd and 3rd births occurred. In conclusion, the people of Shaanxi have not accepted the one child policy. Many social, economic, institutional, and cultural factors which foster high fertility remain.