The 2006 war and its inter-temporal economic impact on agriculture in Lebanon

Abstract

The July 2006 war waged by Israel on Lebanon caused an estimated USD 1 billion of direct (financial) damage to infrastructure. However, it generated also significant indirect (economic/inter-temporal) costs. One sector that suffered considerably in this respect was agriculture, the main source of income for 30-40 per cent of Lebanese. This paper's main objective is to develop a methodology to estimate the total-direct and indirect-cost of the war to agricultural crop production, using an area of south Lebanon as a focal point. The indirect loss assessment viewed inter-temporal reductions in crop production values as the opportunity cost of not working fields due to the presence of unexploded ordnance (UXO). Various crops were evaluated for two scenarios (50 and 100 per cent damage due to UXO) over UXO-clearance periods of five and 10 years. The results indicate that any damage estimates that include only direct losses will under-estimate total losses by 80 and 87 per cent for the five- and 10-year periods, respectively.