New prediction rule for mortality in acute mesenteric ischemia

Abstract

Objective: Acute mesenteric ischemia is potentially fatal, but prognostic factors have not yet been established. This study was undertaken to elucidate them.

Methods: This is a retrospective cohort study, consisting of 110 patients who had been treated in the past 5 years, from 26 national hospitals in Japan.

Results: The overall in-hospital mortality rate was 51%. Logistic regression analysis demonstrated two independent prognostic factors, electrocardiogram scale with an odds ratio of 1.7 (95% CI 1.2-2.4) and shock index of 11 (95% CI 1.5-80). A stepwise analysis gave a prediction equation for in-hospital mortality (R) using these variables and age score. We further modified this equation to a simpler scoring system (S) using the same variables. Both R and S showed a good discriminatory ability as determined by areas under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (0.83, 95% CI: 0.74-0.91 for R; 0.82, 95% CI 0.74-0.91 for S). The observed mortality rates increased as the R or S increased (19% at R <0.25, 41% at 0.25 < or = R <0.6, 85% at R > or =0.6; 19% at S < or =2, 37% at S of 3 or 4, 91% at S > or =5).

Conclusion: The new prediction rules can be used at any hospital and may be promising tools for medical decision-making, informed consent and reviewing quality of care.