Skip to main page content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

Dot gov

The .gov means it’s official.
Federal government websites often end in .gov or .mil. Before sharing sensitive information, make sure you’re on a federal government site.

Https

The site is secure.
The https:// ensures that you are connecting to the official website and that any information you provide is encrypted and transmitted securely.

Access keys NCBI Homepage MyNCBI Homepage Main Content Main Navigation
. 2008 Jul;13(4):234-42.
doi: 10.1007/s12199-008-0036-y. Epub 2008 May 24.

Changes in pancreatic cancer mortality, period patterns, and birth cohort patterns in Japan: analysis of mortality data in the period 1968-2002

Takayuki Seino  1 , Hiroto Nakadaira, Kazuo Endoh, Masaharu Yamamoto
Affiliations

Changes in pancreatic cancer mortality, period patterns, and birth cohort patterns in Japan: analysis of mortality data in the period 1968-2002

Takayuki Seino et al. Environ Health Prev Med. 2008 Jul.

Abstract

Objectives: The 5-year survival rate for pancreatic cancer is known to be lower than that for cancer at any other site in the body, and the proportion of pancreatic cancer deaths among all cancer deaths has been increasing in Japan. The aim of this study was to investigate pancreatic cancer mortality in the light of temporal and geographical trends in the 47 prefectures of the country between 1968 and 2002.

Methods: To survey the geographical aspects of pancreatic cancer mortality, we mapped the direct age-adjusted mortality rates of persons aged 40 years and older by sex in seven 5-year periods (1968-1972 to 1998-2002). We also evaluated the changes in period and birth cohort trends using estimable functions based on the age-period-cohort models in each prefecture.

Results: During the observation period the Hokkaido and Tohoku regions had high mortality rates for both sexes. No significant increase in period trends was observed from 1973 to 2002, but significant increases in cohort trends were observed from 1913 to 1962-in two prefectures, for males, and in four prefectures, for females.

Conclusions: The results of this study reveal a combination of time trends in pancreatic cancer mortality and changes in period or birth cohort trends. The changes in cohort trends in each prefecture were more variable than the period trends. This finding probably indicates the need for further investigation of the cohort-related factors involved in the prevalence of pancreatic cancer. Further research on mortality in the 47 prefectures needs to be conducted while taking the two time effects into account.

PubMed Disclaimer

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Direct age-adjusted mortality rates for pancreatic cancer in the 47 prefectures during the period 1968–2002. White level 1, yellow level 2, orange level 3, red level 4, black level 5 (see online version for color coding). Level 1 and level 5 were defined as the rates below the average beyond the standard deviation and the rates above the average beyond the standard deviation, respectively. Levels 2, 3, and 4 were defined as the rate of intertertile range within the standard deviation, in order of size. The maps at the top are for males, and the maps at the bottom are for females
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

    1. None
    2. Nomura S. The health of workers (39), pancreatic cancer and chemicals exposure to professions. (in Japanese). Rodo Kagaku. 2001;56:28–9.
    1. Statistics and Information Department, Minister’s Secretariat, Ministry of Health, Labour Minister’s Secretariat, Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare (in Japanese). Tokyo 2001.
    1. None
    2. Japan Cancer Association. The number of age specific deaths and rates in 2003 (in Japanese). Bull Jpn Cancer Assoc. 2004;488:4–6.
    1. {'text': '', 'ref_index': 1, 'ids': [{'type': 'PubMed', 'value': '16768168', 'is_inner': True, 'url': 'https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/16768168/'}]}
    2. Seino T, Nakadaira H, Endoh K, Yamoto M. Descriptive epidemiologic studies on geographical clustering of pancreatic cancer mortality and incidence—an analysis in Japan and Niigata. Nippon Eiseigaku Zasshi. 2006;61:366–74. - PubMed
    1. Ohsima A, Isiguro T, Tazima K. White paper on cancer statistics—morbidity/mortality/prognosis–2004 (in Japanese). Tokyo: Sinoharasjupansinsja. 2004:82–3.