Earnings sharing in Social Security: projected impacts of alternative proposals using the MINT model

Abstract

Changes in American family and work patterns over the past decades have prompted various policy proposals for changing the structure of Social Security benefits. In this article, we use the Social Security Administration's Modeling Income in the Near Term (MINT) microsimulation model to project how Social Security benefit amounts would change in response to incorporating earnings sharing into benefit calculations for the population aged 62 or older in 2030 under three hypothetical policy scenarios. The earnings sharing scenarios modeled in the article would reduce benefits for the majority of individuals, although there are important differences among married, divorced, and widowed individuals. Some groups of men and women would experience increases in Social Security benefits, while some would receive reduced benefits in comparison to current law, particularly widowed individuals. Allowing widows to inherit the earnings records of their deceased husbands would improve their outcomes.