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. 2008 Jun;105(26):467-73.
doi: 10.3238/arztebl.2008.0467. Epub 2008 Jun 27.

The projected burden of stroke in the German federal state of Hesse up to the year 2050

Christian Foerch  1 , Bjoern Misselwitz, Matthias Sitzer, Helmuth Steinmetz, Tobias Neumann-Haefelin; Hesse Stroke Study Group
Affiliations

The projected burden of stroke in the German federal state of Hesse up to the year 2050

Christian Foerch et al. Dtsch Arztebl Int. 2008 Jun.

Abstract

Introduction: The aging of the population in Germany will lead to an increased number of stroke patients, but at present there are hardly any concrete estimates of how many stroke patients can be expected in the future.

Methods: This study provides estimates of future numbers of stroke patients in the German federal state of Hesse up to the year 2050. The calculations are based on data obtained from a state-wide quality assurance program for stroke, as well as on demographic data provided by the Statistical Office of the state of Hesse.

Results: The annual number of stroke patients in Hesse is projected to increase steadily from 20 846 in 2005 to more than 35 000 in 2050. By the year 2050, the majority of stroke patients will be 75 years or older. The proportion of severely handicapped stroke patients will increase above average.

Discussion: The projected increase in the number of stroke patients will require substantial changes in health care services unless the incidence of stroke falls in the future, e.g. as the result of improved primary prevention. The development of strategies to prevent stroke in elderly persons should be given a high priority from a health policy perspective.

Keywords: demographic change; epidemiology; health services research; projection; stroke.

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Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Participants in quality assurance in stroke treatment in Hesse (>20 cases/year). The numbers reflect the number of centers at each location.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Age pyramids of Hesse’s population for 2005 (a) and 2050 (b). Source: Hesse State Statistical Office
Figure 3
Figure 3
Total number of stroke patients to 2050; TIA transient ischemic attack; mRS, modified Rankin Scale
Figure 4
Figure 4
Population trends and numbers of stroke patients in Hesse. The number of patients requiring serious care with modified Rankin Scale (mRS) 4–5 and patients with intracerebral hemorrhages (ICD-10: I61) are listed separately.
Figure 5
Figure 5
Age composition of all strokes in Hesse in 2005 (on the left) and in 2050 (on the right). The number of patients older than 74 will increase notably; the number of younger stroke patients will decrease.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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