Simple mathematical deductions in the seroepidemiology of viral infections. I. Herpesvirus group (herpesvirus hominis, varicella-zoster virus, cytomegalovris, Epstein-Barr-Virus)

Abstract

Large samples of nonselected persons collected in South-West Germnay were investigated for the prevalence of serum antibodies to the human Herpesviruses HSV, VZV, CMV and EBV. According to "catalytic models", which compare the infection spread to simple chemical reactions of molecules, a mathematical approximation of the serum surveys was performed. Through a new deduction of the exponential function y = k (l - e-r+) a simple way was found to estimate the annual attack rates in percent of the susceptible, seronegative people. While it was possible to represent the prevalence of serum antibodies to VZV by a continuous curve, a biphasic curve to the antibody prevalence rates in the epidemiology of the other Herpesviruses proved to be more adequate indicating changes in hormonal balance and social behaviour. The use of the epidemiologic parameters k and r for the characterization of the test sensitivity was examined for CMV. By evaluation of the mean antibody titres to CMV, HSV, and EBV throughout different age groups, information about the reactivation of the Herpesvirus diseases could be obtained.