Simple mathematical deductions in the seroepidemiology of viral infections. II. (Para) myxoviruses (measles, mumps, influenza B), rubella, enteroviruses (polio, coxsackie B), adenoviruses, and mycoplasma pneumoniae

Abstract

Large samples of nonselected persons collected in South-West Germany were investigated for the prevalence of serum antibodies to Poliovirus 1-3 and Coxsackievirus B 1-5 (neutralisation test), to Measles, Rubella, and Mumps (hemagglutination inhibition test), Mumps, Influenza B, Adenovirus, and Mycoplasma pneumoniae (complement-fixation test). According to "catalytic models", which compare the infection spread to simple chemical reactions of molecules as self-limiting procedures, a mathematical approximation of the serum surveys was performed. By the use of only two parameters it became possible to calculate the annual attack rates (without regard of age group arrangement and test sensibility), to construct "true" epidemic curves, and to estimate the persistence of humoral immunity in the population investigated for NT and HIT antibodies.