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. 2010 Feb;43(1):97-103.
doi: 10.1016/j.jbi.2009.08.003. Epub 2009 Aug 13.

Comparing early outbreak detection algorithms based on their optimized parameter values

Xiaoli Wang  1 , Daniel Zeng, Holly Seale, Su Li, He Cheng, Rongsheng Luan, Xiong He, Xinghuo Pang, Xiangfeng Dou, Quanyi Wang
Affiliations

Comparing early outbreak detection algorithms based on their optimized parameter values

Xiaoli Wang et al. J Biomed Inform. 2010 Feb.

Abstract

Background: Many researchers have evaluated the performance of outbreak detection algorithms with recommended parameter values. However, the influence of parameter values on algorithm performance is often ignored.

Methods: Based on reported case counts of bacillary dysentery from 2005 to 2007 in Beijing, semi-synthetic datasets containing outbreak signals were simulated to evaluate the performance of five outbreak detection algorithms. Parameters' values were optimized prior to the evaluation.

Results: Differences in performances were observed as parameter values changed. Of the five algorithms, space-time permutation scan statistics had a specificity of 99.9% and a detection time of less than half a day. The exponential weighted moving average exhibited the shortest detection time of 0.1 day, while the modified C1, C2 and C3 exhibited a detection time of close to one day.

Conclusion: The performance of these algorithms has a correlation to their parameter values, which may affect the performance evaluation.

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Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Sensitivity, specificity and time to detection for EWMA with a combination of λ and k (λ = 0.1, 0.2, ..., 1.0; k = 1.0, 2.0 and 3.0), shown from top to bottom.
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
Sensitivity, specificity and time to detection for C1′ with a combination of k and H (k = 0.1, 0.2, ..., 1.5; H = 3σ, 4σ and 5σ), shown from top to bottom.
Fig. 3
Fig. 3
Sensitivity, specificity and time to detection for C2′ with a combination of k and H (k = 0.1, 0.2, ..., 1.5; H = 3σ, 4σ and 5σ), shown from top to bottom.
Fig. 4
Fig. 4
Sensitivity, specificity and time to detection for C3′ with a combination of k and H (k = 0.1, 0.2, ..., 1.5; H = 3σ, 4σ and 5σ), shown from top to bottom.
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