HIV prevalence estimates and AIDS case projections for the United States: report based upon a workshop

Abstract

This document presents conclusions and recommendations from a workshop convened to discuss national estimates of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) prevalence, acquired immunodeficiency virus (AIDS) case projections, and the proportion of HIV-infected persons with laboratory evidence of immune dysfunction. Appendices describe analyses performed before and after the workshop to estimate HIV prevalence and to predict future AIDS cases, the prevalence of persons with AIDS, and deaths among persons with AIDS. On the basis of these analyses, CDC estimates that approximately 750,000 persons in the United States were infected with AIDS at the beginning of 1986 and that approximately 1,000,000 Americans are currently infected with HIV. At least 40,000 new HIV infections occur each year among adults and adolescents, and an estimated 1,500-2,000 new infections occur each year among newborns as a result of perinatal HIV transmission. Approximately 60% of the estimated 1,000,000 HIV-infected persons in the United States may have T-helper lymphocyte (CD4+ cell) counts of less than 500/mm3 of blood and may benefit from early treatment with zidovudine. The number of AIDS cases will continue to increase over the next 4 years, with a projection of 52,000-57,000 cases to be diagnosed in 1990. Both AIDS case projections and HIV-prevalence estimates are influenced by the slowing of the rapid upward trend in AIDS incidence that occurred in 1987, particularly among homosexual and bisexual men who are not intravenous drug users. Data available during and after the workshop suggest that medical therapy or a decline in the incidence of new HIV infections among homosexual men in the early 1980s could have contributed to this change in trend, but the relative contributions of these and other factors (including changes in the completeness or timeliness of AIDS case reporting) require further study.