Skip to main page content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

Dot gov

The .gov means it’s official.
Federal government websites often end in .gov or .mil. Before sharing sensitive information, make sure you’re on a federal government site.

Https

The site is secure.
The https:// ensures that you are connecting to the official website and that any information you provide is encrypted and transmitted securely.

Access keys NCBI Homepage MyNCBI Homepage Main Content Main Navigation
. 2009 Dec;99(12):2230-7.
doi: 10.2105/AJPH.2008.152595. Epub 2009 Oct 15.

Forecasting the future economic burden of current adolescent overweight: an estimate of the coronary heart disease policy model

James Lightwood  1 , Kirsten Bibbins-Domingo, Pamela Coxson, Y Claire Wang, Lawrence Williams, Lee Goldman
Affiliations

Forecasting the future economic burden of current adolescent overweight: an estimate of the coronary heart disease policy model

James Lightwood et al. Am J Public Health. 2009 Dec.

Abstract

Objectives: We predicted the future economic burden attributable to high rates of current adolescent overweight.

Methods: We constructed models to simulate the costs of excess obesity and associated diabetes and coronary heart disease (CHD) among adults aged 35-64 years in the US population in 2020 to 2050.

Results: Current adolescent overweight is projected to result in 161 million life-years complicated by obesity, diabetes, or CHD and 1.5 million life-years lost. The cumulative excess attributable total costs are estimated at $254 billion: $208 billion because of lost productivity from earlier death or morbidity and $46 billion from direct medical costs. Currently available therapies for hypertension, hyperlipidemia, and diabetes, used according to guidelines, if applied in the future, would result in modest reductions in excess mortality (decreased to 1.1 million life-years lost) but increase total excess costs by another $7 billion (increased to $261 billion total).

Conclusions: Current adolescent overweight will likely lead to large future economic and health burdens, especially lost productivity from premature death and disability. Application of currently available medical treatments will not greatly reduce these future burdens of increased adult obesity.

PubMed Disclaimer

Figures

FIGURE 1
FIGURE 1
The effect of increased adolescent overweight on future (a) excess obesity, diabetes, cardiovascular heart disease (CHD), and years of lost life and (b) total discounted direct and indirect costs: United States, 2020–2050. Note. Discounted to 2007 dollars at 3% per year.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

    1. Bibbins-Domingo K, Coxson P, Pletcher MJ, Lightwood J, Goldman L. Adolescent overweight and future adult coronary heart disease. N Engl J Med 2007;357(23):2371–2379 - PubMed
    1. Freedman DS, Khan LK, Serdula MK, Dietz WH, Srinivasan SR, Berenson GS. The relation of childhood BMI to adult adiposity: the Bogalusa Heart Study. Pediatrics 2005;115(1):22–27 - PubMed
    1. Serdula MK, Ivery D, Coates RJ, Freedman DS, Williamson DF, Byers T. Do obese children become obese adults? A review of the literature. Prev Med 1993;22(2):167–177 - PubMed
    1. Whitaker RC, Wright JA, Pepe MS, Seidel KD, Dietz WH. Predicting obesity in young adulthood from childhood and parental obesity. N Engl J Med 1997;337(13):869–873 - PubMed
    1. Ogden CL, Carroll MD, McDowell MA, Flegal KM. Obesity Among Adults in the United States—No Change Since 2003–2004 Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics; 2007. NCHS Data Brief No 1

Publication types