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. 2009 Nov;63(3):203-13.
doi: 10.1080/00324720903165456.

Trends in senescent life expectancy

John Bongaarts  1
Affiliations

Trends in senescent life expectancy

John Bongaarts. Popul Stud (Camb). 2009 Nov.

Abstract

The distinction between senescent and non-senescent mortality proves to be very valuable for describing and analysing age patterns of death rates. Unfortunately, standard methods for estimating these mortality components are lacking. The first part of this paper discusses alternative methods for estimating background and senescent mortality among adults and proposes a simple approach based on death rates by causes of death. The second part examines trends in senescent life expectancy (i.e., the life expectancy implied by senescent mortality) and compares them with trends in conventional longevity indicators between 1960 and 2000 in a group of 17 developed countries with low mortality. Senescent life expectancy for females rises at an average rate of 1.54 years per decade between 1960 and 2000 in these countries. The shape of the distribution of senescent deaths by age remains relatively invariant while the entire distribution shifts over time to higher ages as longevity rises.

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Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Death rates by age for the 15 leading causes of death, US 2005 Source: Kung et al. 2008
Figure 2
Figure 2
Estimated senescent and non-senescent death rates by age, US 2005 Source: Adapted from Kung et al. 2008:
Figure 3
Figure 3
Estimates of background mortality (ages 25-39) for 17 countries, 1960-2000 Source: WHO 2009
Figure 4
Figure 4
Death rates by age, Swedish females, 1960 and 2000 Source: Human Mortality Database 2008 and WHO 2009
Figure 5
Figure 5
Senescent life expectancy for 17 countries, 1960-2000 Source: As for Figure 4
Figure 6
Figure 6
Distribution of senescent deaths by age, Swedish females, 1960 and 2000 Source: As for Figure 4.
Figure 7
Figure 7
Standard deviation of distribution of senescent deaths, 17 countries, 1960-2000 Source: As for Figure 4
Figure 8
Figure 8
Estimates of longevity measures for females, 1960 to 2000, averages for 17 countries. Source: As for Figure 4
Figure 9
Figure 9
Rise in longevity measures from 1960 level for females, 1960 to 2000, averages for 17 countries. Source: As for Figure 4
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References

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