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. 2010 Feb;33(2):338-40.
doi: 10.2337/dc09-1503. Epub 2009 Nov 10.

Epidemiological perspectives on type 1 diabetes in childhood and adolescence in germany: 20 years of the Baden-württemberg Diabetes Incidence Registry (DIARY)

Stefan Ehehalt  1 , Klaus Dietz, Andre M Willasch, Andreas Neu; Baden-Württemberg Diabetes Incidence Registry (DIARY) Group
Collaborators, Affiliations

Epidemiological perspectives on type 1 diabetes in childhood and adolescence in germany: 20 years of the Baden-württemberg Diabetes Incidence Registry (DIARY)

Stefan Ehehalt et al. Diabetes Care. 2010 Feb.

Abstract

Objective: To predict the frequency of type 1 diabetes in childhood and adolescence (<15 years of age) in Germany for the next 20 years.

Research design and methods: Data on diabetes onset has been collected by means of a registry in the federal German state of Baden-Württemberg (documentation period, 1987-2006; n = 5,108; completeness of data 98.1%).

Results: The current incidence rate (2000-2006) is 19.4 per 100,000 per year (95% CI 18.6-20.2). The annual incidence rate can be expressed as a square of a linear function of the calendar year X [y = (3.05 + 0.0778 x {X-1986})(2); r(2) = 0.90]. The highest increase per year was observed in the age-groups comprising 2- and 3-year-olds (12 and 13% per year, respectively). The incidence rate for the year 2026 is estimated to be 37.9 per 100,000 per year (95% CI 33.3-42.9).

Conclusions: The increase that we found in younger children is characteristic of a left shift toward an earlier age.

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Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Fitted number of documented cases (1997–2006) and prediction of new cases (2007–2026) according to age-groups.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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