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. 2010 Aug;24(8):519-24.
doi: 10.1038/jhh.2009.103. Epub 2009 Dec 17.

Mid-life blood pressure levels and the 8-year incidence of type 2 diabetes mellitus: the Rancho Bernardo Study

C K Kramer  1 , D von Mühlen, E Barrett-Connor
Affiliations

Mid-life blood pressure levels and the 8-year incidence of type 2 diabetes mellitus: the Rancho Bernardo Study

C K Kramer et al. J Hum Hypertens. 2010 Aug.

Abstract

Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and hypertension frequently occur together. We examined whether blood pressure (BP) levels predict 8-year incident diabetes. Participants were community-dwelling older adults who had BP measured twice and an oral glucose tolerance test at baseline and again 8.3 years later. At baseline, participants were classified as normotensive (systolic blood pressure (SBP) <120 mm Hg and diastolic blood pressure (DBP) <80 mm Hg; n=242); prehypertensive (SBP>or=120 and <140 mm Hg or DBP>or=80 and <90 mm Hg; n=426); or hypertensive (SBP>or=140 mm Hg or DBP>or=90 mm Hg or using anti-hypertensive medication; n=457). There were 1125 participants (mean age 66.0 years; 44.3% men) who attended the baseline and follow-up visit, of whom 85 had new onset T2DM. Participants who developed T2DM had higher mean body mass index (BMI) and BP levels than those who did not develop diabetes. In logistic regression models adjusted for age, sex, BMI, and physical activity, the odds of incident T2DM was greater in prehypertensives (odds ratio (OR) 2.32 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.05-5.1, P=0.03) and hypertensives (OR 3.5 95% CI 1.50-8.0, P=0.002) compared with normotensives. Excluding participants who used anti-hypertensive medications did not change results. In conclusion, mid-life hypertension and prehypertension predicted future diabetes, independent of BMI. Glucose surveillance should be encouraged in adults with prehypertension or hypertension.

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Conflict of interest statement

Disclosure

The authors have no conflict of interest to declare.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Age-adjusted and multivariate-adjusted odds ratio for type 2 diabetes mellitus incidence and blood pressure levels. Model 1: adjusted for age, sex, physical exercise and body mass index; Model 2: adjusted for age, sex, physical exercise and waist circumference; Model 3: adjusted for age, sex, physical exercise and HOMA-IR; Model 4: adjusted for age, sex, physical exercise, body mass index, fasting plasma glucose and family diabetes history.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Receiver-operating characteristic of systolic blood pressure (—), diastolic blood pressure (– –), and pulse pressure (- -) for incident diabetes.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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