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. 2009;2(5):302-10.
doi: 10.1159/000235561. Epub 2009 Sep 10.

Longitudinal modelling of body mass index from birth to 14 years

Paola Chivers  1 , Beth Hands, Helen Parker, Lawrence Beilin, Garth Kendall, Max Bulsara
Affiliations

Longitudinal modelling of body mass index from birth to 14 years

Paola Chivers et al. Obes Facts. 2009.

Abstract

Background: To examine the tracking of BMI from birth to age 14 years.

Participants and methods: Linear mixed model (LMM) analysis was used to model the trajectories of BMI (n = 1,403). Adiposity rebound was investigated for a subset of individuals (n = 173).

Results: Adolescents who were overweight or obese at 14 years followed a different BMI trajectory from birth compared to those of normal weight. There was a difference between weight status groups for the timing of adiposity rebound (p < 0.001) and BMI at nadir (p < 0.001). The LMM depicted a significant difference in rate of change of BMI over time for males and females (p < 0.001), with female BMI increasing at a faster rate, and for weight status groups (p < 0.005), with the obese cohort having the faster increase in BMI over time. BMI at birth was significantly lower for the normal weight cohort compared to the overweight (p = 0.029) and obese (p = 0.019) cohorts.

Conclusion: This study introduces a powerful analytic tool, LMM, to model BMI and shows that weight status at 14 years is the result of a distinct path in earlier years. Compared to their normal weight peers, overweight and obese adolescents experience an earlier adiposity rebound, with a higher BMI at rebound.

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Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Predicted BMI trajectories from birth to 14 years, separated by weight categories normal weight, overweight, and obese (determined at 14 years using IOTF cut-offs), and gender. Mean age-adjusted BMI calculated for each survey wave is overlaid for each weight category and gender to demonstrate goodness of fit to the predicted BMI trajectory model.
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
Mean BMI over time based on BMI IOTF weight category as determined at survey year 14 (n = 1,403). Adiposity rebound in this study was determined as the minimum BMI value.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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