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. 2007 Mar;23(1):33-69.
doi: 10.1007/s10680-006-9104-4. Epub 2007 Mar 1.

Assumptions for long-term stochastic population forecasts in 18 European countries: Hypothèses de projections stochastiquesàlong terme des populations de 18 pays européens

Maarten Alders, Nico Keilman, Harri Cruijsen

Assumptions for long-term stochastic population forecasts in 18 European countries: Hypothèses de projections stochastiquesàlong terme des populations de 18 pays européens

Maarten Alders et al. Eur J Popul. 2007 Mar.

Abstract
in English, German

The aim of the 'Uncertain Population of Europe'(UPE) project was to compute long-term stochastic (probabilistic) population forecasts for 18 European countries. We developed a general methodology for constructing predictive distributions for fertility, mortality and migration. The assumptions underlying stochastic population forecasts can be assessed by analysing errors in past forecasts or model-based estimates of forecast errors, or by expert judgement. All three approaches have been used in the project. This article summarizes and discusses the results of the three approaches. It demonstrates how the-sometimes conflicting-results can be synthesized into a consistent set of assumptions about the expected levels and the uncertainty of total fertility rate, life expectancy at birth of men and women, and net migration for 18 European countries.

Le but du projet ‘Uncertain population of Europe’(UPE) était de calculer des projections de population stochastiques (probabilistes)àlong terme des populations de 18 pays européens. Nous avons développé une méthodologie générale pour construire des distributions prédictives de fécondité, mortalité et migration. Les hypothèses sous-jacentes aux projections stochastiques de populations peuvent être élaborées en analysant les erreurs de projections passées, en effectuant une modélisation pour estimer les erreurs de projection, ou par un jugement d’expert. Les trois approches ont été appliquées dans le projet, et leurs résultats sont résumés et discutés dans cet article. Nous démontrons que les résultats, parfois contradictoires, peuvent être synthétisés pour former un ensemble cohérent d’hypothèses concernant les niveaux attendus et l’incertitude autour de l’indice synthétique de fécondité, de l’espérance de vieàla naissance des hommes et des femmes, et de la migration nette dans 18 pays européens.

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Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Errors in TFR forecasts
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
Errors in life expectancy forecasts
Fig. 3
Fig. 3
Errors in net migration forecasts
Fig. 4
Fig. 4
TFR in 18 European countries
Fig. 5
Fig. 5
Life expectancy at birth in 18 European countries: men and women
Fig. 6
Fig. 6
Net migration to 18 European countries
Fig. 7
Fig. 7
Life expectancy of women in Austria
Fig. 8
Fig. 8
Coefficient of variation in TFR across 18 European countries
Fig. 9
Fig. 9
Coefficient of variation in Completed Cohort Fertility across 18 European countries
Fig. 10
Fig. 10
Coefficient of variation in life expectancy at birth across 18 European countries
Fig. 11
Fig. 11
Coefficient of variation in remaining life expectancy at age 60 across EU15 countries
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

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    1. {'text': '', 'ref_index': 1, 'ids': [{'type': 'PubMed', 'value': '12292503', 'is_inner': True, 'url': 'https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/12292503/'}]}
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