[A comparison between clinical value of the liver transplantation standard mathematical model score and Child-Turcotte-Pugh score in evaluating the prognosis of liver failure]

Abstract

Objective: To compare the clinical value of the liver transplantation standard (LTS) mathematical model score and Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) score in evaluating the prognosis of liver failure.

Methods: The clinical data of 150 liver failure patients were analyzed retrospectively. All the patients who were admitted from January 2004 to December 2008 were divided into survival group (n=48) and death group (n=102) in regard to their 90-day survival after their admission. LTS score and CTP score were calculated according to their respective clinical data within 24 hours after their admission. Comparison between LTS score and CTP score was conducted respectively between the survival group and death group. The correlation between LTS score/CTP score and the prognosis of liver failure was made by Spearman rank correlation. The ability of LTS score and CTP score to predict the outcome of liver failure was compared with the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve.

Results: The LTS score and CTP score of survival group were 38.88+/-4.27 and 11.25+/-0.97, respectively, which were lower than those of death group (52.63+/-10.65 and 12.18+/-1.22, both P<0.01). The correlation coefficient of LTS score and the prognosis of liver failure (r(s)=0.651, P<0.01) was higher than that of CTP score (r(s)=0.366, P<0.01). The area under ROC curve (AUC) of LTS score was 0.897, sensitivity (SN) was 76.52%, specificity (SP) was 91.18%, positive predictive value (PV+) was 94.39%, negative predictive value (PV-) was 66.67%, and Youden index was 0.677, respectively. The AUC of CTP score was 0.716, those of SN, SP, PV+, PV- and Youden index were 40.91%, 92.65%, 91.53%, 44.68% and 0.336, respectively.

Conclusion: The LTS score is better than the CTP score in evaluating the prognosis of liver failure.