Schools, Skills, and Synapses

Abstract

This paper discusses (a) the role of cognitive and noncognitive ability in shaping adult outcomes, (b) the early emergence of differentials in abilities between children of advantaged families and children of disadvantaged families, (c) the role of families in creating these abilities, (d) adverse trends in American families, and (e) the effectiveness of early interventions in offsetting these trends. Practical issues in the design and implementation of early childhood programs are discussed.

Figure 1

True Dropout Rate vs. NCES Status Dropout Rate, Males and Females 1968-2000 Source: Heckman and LaFontaine (2008a).

Figure 2

Educational Attainment Decompositions, Males and Females 1900-1980 Birth Cohorts. Source: Heckman and LaFontaine (2008a).

Figure 3

Educational Attainment Decompositions, Males 1900-1980 Birth Cohorts Source: Heckman and LaFontaine (2008a).

Figure 4

Educational Attainment Decompositions, Females 1900-1980 Birth Cohorts. Source: Heckman and LaFontaine (2008a).

Figure 5

Relative Supply of College Equivalent Labor, 1963–2003 (March CPS). Source: Autor, Katz, and Kearney (2005).

Figure 6

Percentage of Each Gender Who Perform at Level 1 on the IALS Document Literacy Scale. Note: The scale scores were grouped into five levels of increasing difficulty, with Level 1 representing functional illiteracy. Levels 4 and 5 were combined. The sample is restricted to adults who are between 16 and 65 years of age at the time of the survey (1994 for the U.S. and Germany, 1996 for the U.K., and 1994–1995 for Sweden). Standard errors are calculated using the methodology described in International Adult Literacy Survey (2002).

Figure 7

Density of Age Adjusted AFQT Scores, GED Recipients and High School Graduates with Twelve Years of Schooling. Source: Heckman, Hsee, and Rubinstein (2001).

Figure 8

Effects of Cognitive and Noncognitive Skills on the Outcomes Indicated in the Table, Measured from Lowest Level to Highest in Percentiles of Skills (a)Ever Been in Jail by Age 30, by Ability (Males). (b) Probability of Being a Teenage Mother (Females). Note: This figure plots the probability of a given behavior associated with moving up in one ability distribution for someone after integrating out the other distribution. For example, the lines with markers show the effect of increasing noncognitive ability after integrating the cognitive ability. Source: Heckman, Stixrud, and Urzua (2006).

Figure 8

Effects of Cognitive and Noncognitive Skills on the Outcomes Indicated in the Table, Measured from Lowest Level to Highest in Percentiles of Skills (a)Ever Been in Jail by Age 30, by Ability (Males). (b) Probability of Being a Teenage Mother (Females). Note: This figure plots the probability of a given behavior associated with moving up in one ability distribution for someone after integrating out the other distribution. For example, the lines with markers show the effect of increasing noncognitive ability after integrating the cognitive ability. Source: Heckman, Stixrud, and Urzua (2006).

Figure 9

Effects of Cognitive and Noncognitive Skills on the Outcomes Indicated in the Table, Measured from Lowest Level to Highest in Percentiles of the Skills (a) Probability of Being a High School Dropout by Age 30 (Males). (b) Probability of Being a 4-year College Graduate by Age 30 (Males). (c) Probability of Daily Smoking by Age 18 (Males). (d) Mean Log Wages by Age 30 (Males). Notes: The data are simulated from the estimates of the model and our NLSY79 sample. We use the standard convention that higher deciles are associated with higher values of the variable. The confidence intervals are computed using bootstrapping (50 draws). Source: Heckman, Stixrud, and Urzua (2006).

Figure 9

Effects of Cognitive and Noncognitive Skills on the Outcomes Indicated in the Table, Measured from Lowest Level to Highest in Percentiles of the Skills (a) Probability of Being a High School Dropout by Age 30 (Males). (b) Probability of Being a 4-year College Graduate by Age 30 (Males). (c) Probability of Daily Smoking by Age 18 (Males). (d) Mean Log Wages by Age 30 (Males). Notes: The data are simulated from the estimates of the model and our NLSY79 sample. We use the standard convention that higher deciles are associated with higher values of the variable. The confidence intervals are computed using bootstrapping (50 draws). Source: Heckman, Stixrud, and Urzua (2006).

Figure 9

Effects of Cognitive and Noncognitive Skills on the Outcomes Indicated in the Table, Measured from Lowest Level to Highest in Percentiles of the Skills (a) Probability of Being a High School Dropout by Age 30 (Males). (b) Probability of Being a 4-year College Graduate by Age 30 (Males). (c) Probability of Daily Smoking by Age 18 (Males). (d) Mean Log Wages by Age 30 (Males). Notes: The data are simulated from the estimates of the model and our NLSY79 sample. We use the standard convention that higher deciles are associated with higher values of the variable. The confidence intervals are computed using bootstrapping (50 draws). Source: Heckman, Stixrud, and Urzua (2006).

Figure 9

Effects of Cognitive and Noncognitive Skills on the Outcomes Indicated in the Table, Measured from Lowest Level to Highest in Percentiles of the Skills (a) Probability of Being a High School Dropout by Age 30 (Males). (b) Probability of Being a 4-year College Graduate by Age 30 (Males). (c) Probability of Daily Smoking by Age 18 (Males). (d) Mean Log Wages by Age 30 (Males). Notes: The data are simulated from the estimates of the model and our NLSY79 sample. We use the standard convention that higher deciles are associated with higher values of the variable. The confidence intervals are computed using bootstrapping (50 draws). Source: Heckman, Stixrud, and Urzua (2006).

Figure 10

Trend in Mean Cognitive Score by Maternal Education. IHDP Study. Note: Using all observations and assuming that data are missing at random. Source: Brooks-Gunn, Cunha, Duncan, Heckman, and Sojourner (2006).

Figure 11

Evolution by Age of Average Percentile Ranks on the PIAT Math Score by Family Income Status: Adjusted and Unadjusted (a) Average Percentile Rank on PIAT-Math Score by Family Income Quartile. (b) After Adjustments (Maternal Education, Maternal AFQT and Broken Home). Source: Carneiro and Heckman (2003), but reformatted.

Figure 11

Evolution by Age of Average Percentile Ranks on the PIAT Math Score by Family Income Status: Adjusted and Unadjusted (a) Average Percentile Rank on PIAT-Math Score by Family Income Quartile. (b) After Adjustments (Maternal Education, Maternal AFQT and Broken Home). Source: Carneiro and Heckman (2003), but reformatted.

Figure 12

Evolution by Age of Average Percentile Rank on Behavioral Problems Index (BPI) by Family Income Status: Adjusted and Unadjusted (a) Average Percentile Rank on Anti-Social Scores by Income Quartile (Family Income between Ages 6-10). (b) After Adjustments (Maternal Education, Maternal AFQT and Broken Home). Source: Carneiro and Heckman (2003), but reformatted.

Figure 12

Evolution by Age of Average Percentile Rank on Behavioral Problems Index (BPI) by Family Income Status: Adjusted and Unadjusted (a) Average Percentile Rank on Anti-Social Scores by Income Quartile (Family Income between Ages 6-10). (b) After Adjustments (Maternal Education, Maternal AFQT and Broken Home). Source: Carneiro and Heckman (2003), but reformatted.

Figure 13

Alternative Measures of the Percentage of Children at Risk and a Measure of Trends in Single Motherhood (a) Percent of Children Under 18 Living with One Parent By Marital Status of Single Parent (b) Percent of All Children Less than Five With Never Married Mother by Mother's Education (c) Percent of All Children Less than Five With Never Married Mother by Race (d) Trends in Mothers' Employment, 1960 to 2000. (e) Trends in Single Motherhood, 1960 to 2000. Notes: Figure 13(a) is from Heckman and LaFontaine (2008b). Figures 13(b) and 13(c) are from Heckman and LaFontaine (2008b). 13(d) Employment is defined as working at least 27 weeks per year for 15 hours per week. Source: PUMS (1960–2000). 13(e) Single motherhood is defined as not being married or not living with a spouse. Source: PUMS (1960–2000).

Figure 13

Alternative Measures of the Percentage of Children at Risk and a Measure of Trends in Single Motherhood (a) Percent of Children Under 18 Living with One Parent By Marital Status of Single Parent (b) Percent of All Children Less than Five With Never Married Mother by Mother's Education (c) Percent of All Children Less than Five With Never Married Mother by Race (d) Trends in Mothers' Employment, 1960 to 2000. (e) Trends in Single Motherhood, 1960 to 2000. Notes: Figure 13(a) is from Heckman and LaFontaine (2008b). Figures 13(b) and 13(c) are from Heckman and LaFontaine (2008b). 13(d) Employment is defined as working at least 27 weeks per year for 15 hours per week. Source: PUMS (1960–2000). 13(e) Single motherhood is defined as not being married or not living with a spouse. Source: PUMS (1960–2000).

Figure 13

Alternative Measures of the Percentage of Children at Risk and a Measure of Trends in Single Motherhood (a) Percent of Children Under 18 Living with One Parent By Marital Status of Single Parent (b) Percent of All Children Less than Five With Never Married Mother by Mother's Education (c) Percent of All Children Less than Five With Never Married Mother by Race (d) Trends in Mothers' Employment, 1960 to 2000. (e) Trends in Single Motherhood, 1960 to 2000. Notes: Figure 13(a) is from Heckman and LaFontaine (2008b). Figures 13(b) and 13(c) are from Heckman and LaFontaine (2008b). 13(d) Employment is defined as working at least 27 weeks per year for 15 hours per week. Source: PUMS (1960–2000). 13(e) Single motherhood is defined as not being married or not living with a spouse. Source: PUMS (1960–2000).

Figure 13

Alternative Measures of the Percentage of Children at Risk and a Measure of Trends in Single Motherhood (a) Percent of Children Under 18 Living with One Parent By Marital Status of Single Parent (b) Percent of All Children Less than Five With Never Married Mother by Mother's Education (c) Percent of All Children Less than Five With Never Married Mother by Race (d) Trends in Mothers' Employment, 1960 to 2000. (e) Trends in Single Motherhood, 1960 to 2000. Notes: Figure 13(a) is from Heckman and LaFontaine (2008b). Figures 13(b) and 13(c) are from Heckman and LaFontaine (2008b). 13(d) Employment is defined as working at least 27 weeks per year for 15 hours per week. Source: PUMS (1960–2000). 13(e) Single motherhood is defined as not being married or not living with a spouse. Source: PUMS (1960–2000).

Figure 13

Alternative Measures of the Percentage of Children at Risk and a Measure of Trends in Single Motherhood (a) Percent of Children Under 18 Living with One Parent By Marital Status of Single Parent (b) Percent of All Children Less than Five With Never Married Mother by Mother's Education (c) Percent of All Children Less than Five With Never Married Mother by Race (d) Trends in Mothers' Employment, 1960 to 2000. (e) Trends in Single Motherhood, 1960 to 2000. Notes: Figure 13(a) is from Heckman and LaFontaine (2008b). Figures 13(b) and 13(c) are from Heckman and LaFontaine (2008b). 13(d) Employment is defined as working at least 27 weeks per year for 15 hours per week. Source: PUMS (1960–2000). 13(e) Single motherhood is defined as not being married or not living with a spouse. Source: PUMS (1960–2000).

Figure 14

Effects of Exposure to Adverse Childhood Experience (ACE) on Adult Outcomes (a) Childhood Experiences vs. Adult Alcoholism. (b) ACE Score vs. Intravenous Drug Use. (c) ACE Score and Rates of Antidepressant Prescriptions. (d) Adverse Childhood Experiences vs. History of STD (Sexually Transmitted Disease). Source: Felitti and Anda (2005).

Figure 14

Effects of Exposure to Adverse Childhood Experience (ACE) on Adult Outcomes (a) Childhood Experiences vs. Adult Alcoholism. (b) ACE Score vs. Intravenous Drug Use. (c) ACE Score and Rates of Antidepressant Prescriptions. (d) Adverse Childhood Experiences vs. History of STD (Sexually Transmitted Disease). Source: Felitti and Anda (2005).

Figure 14

Effects of Exposure to Adverse Childhood Experience (ACE) on Adult Outcomes (a) Childhood Experiences vs. Adult Alcoholism. (b) ACE Score vs. Intravenous Drug Use. (c) ACE Score and Rates of Antidepressant Prescriptions. (d) Adverse Childhood Experiences vs. History of STD (Sexually Transmitted Disease). Source: Felitti and Anda (2005).

Figure 14

Effects of Exposure to Adverse Childhood Experience (ACE) on Adult Outcomes (a) Childhood Experiences vs. Adult Alcoholism. (b) ACE Score vs. Intravenous Drug Use. (c) ACE Score and Rates of Antidepressant Prescriptions. (d) Adverse Childhood Experiences vs. History of STD (Sexually Transmitted Disease). Source: Felitti and Anda (2005).

Figure 15

Abnormal Brain Development Following Sensory Neglect in Early Childhood. Note: These images illustrate the negative impact of neglect on the developing brain. The scan on the left is an image from a healthy three year old with an average head size (50^th percentile). The image on the right is from a three year old child suffering from severe sensory-deprivation neglect. This child's brain is significantly smaller than average (3^th percentile) and has enlarged ventricles and cortical atrophy. Source: Perry (2004).

Figure 16

Perry Preschool Program: IQ, by Age and Treatment Group. Source: Perry Preschool Program. IQ measured on the Stanford Binet Intelligence Scale (Terman and Merrill, 1960). Test was administered at program entry and each of the ages indicated.

Figure 17

Perry Preschool Program. (a) Educational Effects, by Treatment Group. *High Achievement Defined as Performance At or Above the Lowest 10th Percentile on the California Achievement Test (1970). Source: Barnett (2004). (b) Economic Effects at Age 27, by Treatment Group. *Updated through Age 40 using recent Perry Preschool Program data, derived from self-report and all available state records. Source: Barnett (2004). (c) Arrests Per Person before Age 40, by Treatment Group. Juvenile arrests are defined as arrests prior to age 19. Source: Barnett (2004).

Figure 17

Perry Preschool Program. (a) Educational Effects, by Treatment Group. *High Achievement Defined as Performance At or Above the Lowest 10th Percentile on the California Achievement Test (1970). Source: Barnett (2004). (b) Economic Effects at Age 27, by Treatment Group. *Updated through Age 40 using recent Perry Preschool Program data, derived from self-report and all available state records. Source: Barnett (2004). (c) Arrests Per Person before Age 40, by Treatment Group. Juvenile arrests are defined as arrests prior to age 19. Source: Barnett (2004).

Figure 17

Perry Preschool Program. (a) Educational Effects, by Treatment Group. *High Achievement Defined as Performance At or Above the Lowest 10th Percentile on the California Achievement Test (1970). Source: Barnett (2004). (b) Economic Effects at Age 27, by Treatment Group. *Updated through Age 40 using recent Perry Preschool Program data, derived from self-report and all available state records. Source: Barnett (2004). (c) Arrests Per Person before Age 40, by Treatment Group. Juvenile arrests are defined as arrests prior to age 19. Source: Barnett (2004).

Figure 18

Returns to a Unit Dollar Invested. (a) Return to a Unit Dollar Invested at Different Ages from the Perspective of the Beginning of Life, Assuming One Dollar Initially Invested at Each Age (b) Returns to One More Dollar of Investment as Perceived at Different Ages, Initially and at Age 3

Figure 18

Returns to a Unit Dollar Invested. (a) Return to a Unit Dollar Invested at Different Ages from the Perspective of the Beginning of Life, Assuming One Dollar Initially Invested at Each Age (b) Returns to One More Dollar of Investment as Perceived at Different Ages, Initially and at Age 3

Figure A.1

Health and Income for Children and Adults, U.S. National Health Interview Survey 1986-1995. Source: Case, Lubotsky, and Paxson (2002).

Figure A.2

Probability of Daily Smoking by Age 18, Males by Decile of Cognitive and Noncognitive Factor. Note: The highest decile of cognitive and noncognitive ability is “10.” “1” is the lowest decile. Source: Heckman, Stixrud, and Urzua (2006).

Figure A.3

Ratio of Early to Late Investment in Human Capital as a Function of the Skill Multiplier for Different Values of Complementarity. Note: Assumes r = 0. Source: Cunha, Heckman, Lochner et al. (2006).