A prognostic model in patients treated for metastatic gastric cancer with second-line chemotherapy

Abstract

Background: This retrospective study was carried out to evaluate the prognostic significance of clinical factors in patients treated for metastatic gastric cancer with second-line chemotherapy.

Patients and methods: We evaluated the prognostic significance of various clinical factors in 126 patients, who were treated with second-line chemotherapy.

Results: Median progression-free and overall survival (OS) for second-line chemotherapy were 3.3 and 5.3 months, respectively, with an overall response rate of 11.1%. Multivariate analysis identified three independent prognostic factors: performance status: Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group zero to one [hazard ratio (HR) 2.3, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.7-5.4], hemoglobin (Hb) level: >/=10 g/dl (HR 2.2, 95% CI 2.1-2.4) and time-to-progression (TTP) under first-line therapy: >/=5 months (HR 0.5, 95% CI 0.3-0.8). From the obtained data, a prognostic index was constructed, dividing the patients into three risk groups: good (n = 40), intermediate (n = 36) and poor risk group (n = 56). The median survival for good, intermediate and poor risk groups were 13.5, 6.0 and 2.9 months, respectively, whereas the 1-year OS rates were 50.2%, 14.2% and 2.6%, respectively (P = 0.00001).

Conclusions: With inadequate data from randomized controlled trials at the moment, our report indicates that second-line chemotherapy is effective and beneficial in patients with good performance status, higher Hb level along with higher TTP under first-line therapy.