Skip to main page content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

Dot gov

The .gov means it’s official.
Federal government websites often end in .gov or .mil. Before sharing sensitive information, make sure you’re on a federal government site.

Https

The site is secure.
The https:// ensures that you are connecting to the official website and that any information you provide is encrypted and transmitted securely.

Access keys NCBI Homepage MyNCBI Homepage Main Content Main Navigation
. 2009 Oct 1;46(4):450-463.
doi: 10.1016/j.eeh.2009.05.001.

Survival in 19th Century Cities: The Larger the City, the Smaller Your Chances

Louis Cain  1 , Sok Chul Hong
Affiliations

Survival in 19th Century Cities: The Larger the City, the Smaller Your Chances

Louis Cain et al. Explor Econ Hist. .

Abstract

Using Union Army veterans' lifetime socioeconomic and health records, this essay finds a consistent and persistent hierarchy in survival rates and hazard ratios by urban size at and across three stages of life: birth, late adolescence, and death. This urban mortality penalty remains after controlling for variables associated with each individual veteran. The results of our geographical mobility analyses suggest that, with respect to these veterans, the search for an explanation should focus on late adolescence and adulthood as much as on early life. A complete explanation of the penalty requires a project of greater scope.

PubMed Disclaimer

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1. Aggregate Urban Mortality Penalty by City Population Size and Population Density
Notes: Out of 100 population cities in 1860, we selected the cities where more than 6 veterans were born and survived the Civil War. Population size in the panel on the left is log-scaled. City population density in the panel on the right is measured as population per square mile.
Figure 2
Figure 2. Observed Survival Curves by Type of Birthplace
Notes: The survival curves were made for the veterans who survived the Civil War and whose death years are currently known. The panel on the right provides an enlarged view of the period around 1900.
Figure 3
Figure 3. Five-Year-Period Age-Specific Mortality Rate of Union Army Veterans (aged 60 or more at the beginning year of each period)
Notes: We limited the sample to veterans who were at 60 or older at the beginning year of each period. The mortality rate is calculated as total deaths during the period out of total veterans alive at the beginning of the period.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

    1. Barker DJ. Maternal Nutrition, Fetal Nutrition, and Disease in Later Life. Nutrition. 1997;13(9):807–13. - PubMed
    1. Brown JC. Forthcoming. Public health reform and the decline in urban mortality: The case of Germany, 1876-1912. In: Kearns G, Lee WR, Nelson MC, Rogers J, editors. Improving the Public Health: Essays in Medical History. Liverpool, UK: Liverpool University Press;
    1. Cain LP, Rotella EJ. Death and spending: Did urban mortality shocks lead to municipal expenditure increases? Annales de demographie historique. 2001;1:139–54.
    1. Coale A, Demeny P. Regional model life tables and stable populations. New York: Academic; 1983.
    1. Condran GA, Crimmins E. Mortality differentials between rural and urban areas of states in the northeastern United States, 1890-1900. Journal of Historical Geography. 1980;6(2):179–202. - PubMed

LinkOut - more resources