Dynamics of infectious disease transmission by inhalable respiratory droplets

Abstract

Transmission of respiratory infectious diseases in humans, for instance influenza, occurs by several modes. Respiratory droplets provide a vector of transmission of an infectious pathogen that may contribute to different transmission modes. An epidemiological model incorporating the dynamics of inhalable respiratory droplets is developed to assess their relevance in the infectious process. Inhalable respiratory droplets are divided into respirable droplets, with droplet diameter less than 10 microm, and inspirable droplets, with diameter in the range 10-100 microm: both droplet classes may be inhaled or settle. Droplet dynamics is determined by their physical properties (size), whereas population dynamics is determined by, among other parameters, the pathogen infectivity and the host contact rates. Three model influenza epidemic scenarios, mediated by different airborne or settled droplet classes, are analysed. The scenarios are distinguished by the characteristic times associated with breathing at contact and with hand-to-face contact. The scenarios suggest that airborne transmission, mediated by respirable droplets, provides the dominant transmission mode in middle and long-term epidemics, whereas inspirable droplets, be they airborne or settled, characterize short-term epidemics with high attack rates. The model neglects close-contact transmission by droplet sprays (direct projection onto facial mucous membranes), retaining close-contact transmission by inspirable droplets.

Figure 1.

Model dynamics of an influenza outbreak mediated by airborne respirable droplets. (a) Number of susceptible (solid line), infected (dotted) and recovered persons (dashed). (b) Number of airborne small (solid) and airborne large (dashed) respirable droplets. (c) Number of settled small (solid) and settled large (dotted) respirable droplets. (d) Cumulative number of infections attributable to a transmission mode: airborne small (solid) and airborne large (dashed) droplets; number of infections attributable to settled respirable droplets (total number) not visible.

Figure 2.

Model dynamics of an influenza outbreak mediated by airborne inspirable droplets. (a) As in figure 1. (b) Number of airborne respirable (solid line) and airborne inspirable (dashed line) droplets. (c) Number of settled respirable (dotted line) and settled inspirable (solid line) droplets. (d) Cumulative number of infections attributable to airborne respirable (solid line), airborne inspirable (dashed line) and settled inspirable (dotted line) droplets; number of infections attributable to settled respirable droplets not shown.

Figure 3.

Model dynamics of an influenza outbreak mediated by settled inspirable droplets. Captions are as in figure 2.