Seasonality of child homicide

Abstract

Objective: To determine whether there is seasonal variation (by season and month of year) in homicides among young children.

Study design: Homicide deaths in children<or=5 years (n=797), as identified in death certificates from 5 states (Indiana, Ohio, Missouri, Oklahoma, and Washington), were analyzed for a seasonality effect in the years 1999-2006. Season and month of calendar year were used as categorical variables. A chi2 goodness of fit test was used to compare observed and expected proportions of homicides for the entire population. Stratified analyses of children dying before age 2 years and those dying between 2 and 5 years of age were also conducted.

Results: The occurrence of homicide was proportional to the time interval in each category (P=.05). For the total population, there was no statistically significant variation between the expected and observed percentage of homicides by either season or month of calendar year (P=.46 and P=.74, respectively). For the stratified analyses, there was no statistically significant variation between expected and observed percentages of homicides by either season or month of calendar year for either population.

Conclusion: There is no seasonality to child homicides by month of year or season of year among young children in the examined population.