Spectrum: a model platform for linking maternal and child survival interventions with AIDS, family planning and demographic projections

Abstract

Background: LiST is implemented in Spectrum, a modular computer program designed to examine the impact of interventions on health outcomes. A typical LiST application uses three other modules in Spectrum addressing demography, family planning and HIV/AIDS.

Methods: The demographic module projects the population by single age and sex over time and uses LiST calculations of the mortality rates by age group to calculate the number of deaths. The family planning module uses the proximate determinants of fertility framework to calculate the effects of increasing contraceptive use on the total fertility rate and, thus, the number of births. The HIV/AIDS module calculates the consequences of HIV epidemic trends on child mortality and the effects of programs to prevent mother-to-child transmission of HIV, cotrimoxazole prophylaxis and anti-retroviral treatment on the number of AIDS deaths.

Results: These modules provide LiST with estimates of the number of children and number of deaths by single age as they are affected by changes in fertility through family planning and interventions to prevent the transmission of HIV or delay AIDS death.

Conclusions: Integrating LiST within the existing Spectrum system of planning models expands the scope of LiST to include the effects of demographic change, family planning and HIV interventions.

Figure 1

Interactions between LiST and other modules in Spectrum