[Demographic change and disease rates: a projection until 2050]

Abstract

Demographic change and its impact on the German healthcare system is a subject of great debate. The purpose of this paper is to make projections on disease rates based on the 11th coordinated demographic prediction and population-based data which take into consideration demographic developments. The German population will decrease by approximately 16% until 2050, while at the same time the number of persons aged over 65 years will increase by 38% and the number of individuals aged over 80 years will increase by 156%. Baby boomers cause a vertical wave in the population pyramid. The population pyramid itself will lead to an overproportional increase in the number of elderly persons. Assuming that disease probability stays the same, the incidence of diseases due to advanced age will rise dramatically. Especially diseases, such as community-acquired pneumonia, age-related macula degeneration, dementia, fracture of the femur neck, and myocardial infarction, will by then occur more often. By 2050, some of the most frequent diseases will be hypertension and arthrosis. Thus, the continuous cutting of resources seems rather short minded. It is highly recommended to reconsider the long-run effects before setting a health policy course. A proper social discourse about primary care and prioritization appears to be urgently needed.