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Comparative Study
. 2010 Jun;100(6):1137-44.
doi: 10.2105/AJPH.2009.169748. Epub 2010 Apr 15.

Heat-health warning systems: a comparison of the predictive capacity of different approaches to identifying dangerously hot days

Shakoor Hajat  1 , Scott C Sheridan, Michael J Allen, Mathilde Pascal, Karine Laaidi, Abderrahmane Yagouti, Ugis Bickis, Aurelio Tobias, Denis Bourque, Ben G Armstrong, Tom Kosatsky
Affiliations
Comparative Study

Heat-health warning systems: a comparison of the predictive capacity of different approaches to identifying dangerously hot days

Shakoor Hajat et al. Am J Public Health. 2010 Jun.

Abstract

Objectives: We compared the ability of several heat-health warning systems to predict days of heat-associated mortality using common data sets.

Methods: Heat-health warning systems initiate emergency public health interventions once forecasts have identified weather conditions to breach predetermined trigger levels. We examined 4 commonly used trigger-setting approaches: (1) synoptic classification, (2) epidemiologic assessment of the temperature-mortality relationship, (3) temperature-humidity index, and (4) physiologic classification. We applied each approach in Chicago, Illinois; London, United Kingdom; Madrid, Spain; and Montreal, Canada, to identify days expected to be associated with the highest heat-related mortality.

Results: We found little agreement across the approaches in which days were identified as most dangerous. In general, days identified by temperature-mortality assessment were associated with the highest excess mortality.

Conclusions: Triggering of alert days and ultimately the initiation of emergency responses by a heat-health warning system varies significantly across approaches adopted to establish triggers.

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Figures

FIGURE 1
FIGURE 1
Daily mortality and mean temperature: London, United Kingdom, June 1, 2003–August 31, 2003.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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