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. 2010 Jul;33(7):1494-6.
doi: 10.2337/dc09-2295. Epub 2010 Apr 22.

Is the recent rise in type 2 diabetes incidence from 1984 to 2007 explained by the trend in increasing BMI?: evidence from a prospective study of British men

Sarah L Hardoon  1 , Richard W Morris, Mary C Thomas, S Goya Wannamethee, Lucy T Lennon, Peter H Whincup
Affiliations

Is the recent rise in type 2 diabetes incidence from 1984 to 2007 explained by the trend in increasing BMI?: evidence from a prospective study of British men

Sarah L Hardoon et al. Diabetes Care. 2010 Jul.

Abstract

Objective: To estimate the extent to which increasing BMI may explain the rise in type 2 diabetes incidence in British men from 1984 to 2007.

Research design and methods: A representative cohort ratio of 6,460 British men was followed-up for type 2 diabetes incidence between 1984 (aged 45-65 years) and 2007 (aged 67-89 years). BMI was ascertained at regular intervals before and during the follow-up.

Results: Between 1984-1992 and 1999-2007, the age-adjusted hazard of type 2 diabetes more than doubled (hazard ratio 2.33 [95% CI 1.75-3.10]). Mean BMI rose by 1.42 kg/m(2) (95% CI 1.10-1.74) between 1984 and 1999; this could explain 26% (95% CI 17-38) of the type 2 diabetes increase.

Conclusions: An appreciable portion of the rise in type 2 diabetes can be attributed to BMI changes. A substantial portion remains unexplained, possibly associated with other determinants such as physical activity. This merits further research.

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Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Trend over time in incidence of type 2 diabetes and in mean BMI, by age-group. ○, age d 45–49 years; ●, age d 50–54 years; □, age d 55–59 years; ■, aged 60–64 years; ▵, aged 65–69 years; ▴, aged 70–74 years.
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