Fertility motivations of youth predict later fertility outcomes: a prospective analysis of national longitudinal survey of youth data

Abstract

We examine how the motivational sequence that leads to childbearing predicts fertility outcomes across reproductive careers. Using a motivational traits-desires-intentions theoretical framework, we test a structural equation model using prospective male and female data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth. Specifically, we take motivational data collected during the 1979-1982 period, when the youths were in their teens and early twenties, to predict the timing of the next child born after 1982 and the total number of children born by 2002. Separate models were estimated for males and females but ivith equality constraints imposed unless relaxing these constraints improved the overall model fit. The results indicate substantial explanatory power of fertility motivations for both short-term and long-term fertility outcomes. They also reveal the effects of both gender role attitude and educational intentions on these outcomes. Although some gender differences in model pathways occurred, the primary hypothesized pathways were essentially the same across the genders. Two validity substudies support the soundness of the results. A third sub-study comparing the male and female models across the sample split on the basis of previous childbearing revealed a number of pattern differences within the four gender-by-previous childbearing groups. Several of the more robust of these pattern differences offer interesting insights and support the validity and usefulness of our theoretical framework.

Figure 1

An expansion of the TDIB model to show the interactions of two types of traits, three types of desires, and three types of intentions in their effect on fertility behavior. Dashed boxes indicate those components of the motivational sequence available in the NLSY data that will be used in testing the theoretical framework

Figure 2

The hypothesized fertility structural equation model that was fitted to the NLSY data. Fertility traits, desires, and intentions were measured during 1979 to 1982. Fertility behaviors (indicated by the vertical dotted line) were not measured but were assumed to occur subsequent to 1982, resulting in fertility outcomes. Two fertility outcomes were measured beginning in 1983 and ending in 2002.

Figure 3

Four LISREL structural equation models, two constrained across males and females in the no childbearing subsample (left column) and two constrained across males and females in the previous childbearing subsample (right column). The predictions of the gender role variable are unchanged from the base model and are omitted for the sake of clarity.