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. 2010 Jul;100(7):1267-73.
doi: 10.2105/AJPH.2009.166900. Epub 2010 May 13.

SimSmoke model evaluation of the effect of tobacco control policies in Korea: the unknown success story

David T Levy  1 , Sung-il Cho, Young-Mee Kim, Susan Park, Mee-Kyung Suh, Sin Kam
Affiliations

SimSmoke model evaluation of the effect of tobacco control policies in Korea: the unknown success story

David T Levy et al. Am J Public Health. 2010 Jul.

Abstract

Objectives: We evaluated the effect of strict tobacco control policies, implemented beginning in 1995 in the Republic of Korea, on smoking prevalence and deaths.

Methods: SimSmoke is a simulation model of the effect of tobacco control policies over time on smoking initiation and cessation. It uses standard attribution methods to estimate lives saved as a result of new policies. After validating the model against smoking prevalence, we used it to determine the Korean policies' effect on smoking prevalence.

Results: The model predicted smoking prevalence accurately between 1995 and 2006. We estimated that 70% of the 24% relative reduction in smoking rates over that period was attributable to tobacco control policies, mainly tax increases and a strong media campaign, and that the policies will prolong 104 812 male lives by the year 2027.

Conclusions: Our results document Korea's success in reducing smoking prevalence and prolonging lives, which may serve as an example for other Asian nations. Further improvements may be possible with higher taxes and more comprehensive smoke-free laws, cessation policies, advertising restrictions, and health warnings.

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Figures

FIGURE 1
FIGURE 1
SimSmoke model predictions versus KNHANES and SSS survey estimates of smoking prevalence among Korean men aged 20 years and older: KNHANES, 1995–2006. Note. KNHANES = Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey; SSS = Social Statistical Survey.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

    1. Ezzati M, Lopez AD. Estimates of global mortality attributable to smoking in 2000. Lancet 2003;362(9387):847–852 - PubMed
    1. Levy DT, Benjakul S, Ross H, Ritthiphakdee B. The role of tobacco control policies in reducing smoking and deaths in a middle income nation: results from the Thailand SimSmoke simulation model. Tob Control 2008;17(1):53–59 - PubMed
    1. Cho KS. Tobacco Control Policy of the Republic of Korea 2005 Seoul, Korea: Ministry of Health and Welfare; 2006
    1. Levy DT, Bauer JE, Lee HR. Simulation modeling and tobacco control: creating more robust public health policies. Am J Public Health 2006;96(3):494–498 - PMC - PubMed
    1. Homer JB, Hirsch GB. System dynamics modeling for public health: background and opportunities. Am J Public Health 2006;96(3):452–458 - PMC - PubMed

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