Undetectable plasma viral load predicts normal survival in HIV-2-infected people in a West African village

Abstract

Background: There have been no previous studies of the long-term survival and temporal changes in plasma viral load among HIV-2 infected subjects.

Methods: 133 HIV-2 infected and 158 HIV-uninfected subjects from a rural area in North-west Guinea-Bissau, West Africa were enrolled into a prospective cohort study in 1991 and followed-up to mid-2009. Data were collected on four occasions during that period on HIV antibodies, CD4% and HIV-2 plasma viral load.

Results: Median age (interquartile range [IQR]) of HIV-2 infected subjects at time of enrollment was 47 (36, 60) years, similar to that of HIV-uninfected control subjects, 49 (38, 62) (p = 0.4). Median (IQR) plasma viral load and CD4 percentage were 347 (50, 4,300) copies/ml and 29 (22, 35) respectively.Overall loss to follow-up to assess vital status was small, at 6.7% and 6.3% for HIV-2 infected and uninfected subjects respectively. An additional 17 (12.8%) and 16 (10.1%) of HIV-2 infected and uninfected subjects respectively were censored during follow-up due to infection with HIV-1. The mortality rate per 100 person-years (95% CI) was 4.5 (3.6, 5.8) among HIV-2 infected subjects compared to 2.1 (1.6, 2.9) among HIV-uninfected (age-sex adjusted rate ratio 1.9 (1.3, 2.8, p < 0.001) representing a 2-fold excess mortality rate associated with HIV-2 infection.Viral load measurements were available for 98%, 78%, 77% and 61% HIV-2 infected subjects who were alive and had not become super-infected with HIV-1, in 1991, 1996, 2003 and 2006 respectively. Median plasma viral load (RNA copies per ml) (IQR) did not change significantly over time, being 150 (50, 1,554; n = 77) in 1996, 203 (50, 2,837; n = 47) in 2003 and 171 (50, 497; n = 31) in 2006. Thirty seven percent of HIV-2 subjects had undetectable viraemia (<100 copies/ml) at baseline: strikingly, mortality in this group was similar to that of the general population.

Conclusions: A substantial proportion of HIV-2 infected subjects in this cohort have stable plasma viral load, and those with an undetectable viral load (37%) at study entry had a normal survival rate. However, the sequential laboratory findings need to be interpreted with caution given the number of individuals who could not be re-examined.

Figure 1

Flowchart showing follow-up status of subjects with respect to biological measurements and survival over the course of the study. At some time points subjects were known to be alive e.g. they were seen at later time points, but measurements were not taken from them. ^a After 2006 biological measurements were not taken and so data on seroconversions not available between 2006 and 2009. ^b Subjects who had died by mid-2009. ^c Known to be alive at latest census in 2009.

Figure 2

Kaplan-Meier survival of HIV-2 infected (stratified by baseline plasma viral load) and HIV-uninfected subjects.