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. 2010 May;47(2):299-312.
doi: 10.1353/dem.0.0098.

Three measures of longevity: time trends and record values

Vladimir Canudas-Romo  1
Affiliations

Three measures of longevity: time trends and record values

Vladimir Canudas-Romo. Demography. 2010 May.

Abstract

This article examines the trend over time in the measures of "typical" longevity experienced by members of a population: life expectancy at birth, and the median and modal ages at death. The article also analyzes trends in record values observed for all three measures. The record life expectancy at birth increased from a level of 44 years in Sweden in 1840 to 82 years in Japan in 2005. The record median age at death shows increasing patterns similar to those observed in life expectancy at birth. However, the record modal age at death changes very little until the second half of the twentieth century: it moved from a plateau level, around age 80, to having a similar pace of increase as that observed for the mean and the median in most recent years. These findings explain the previously observed uninterrupted increase in the record life expectancy. The cause of this increase has changed over time from a dominance of child mortality reductions to a dominance of adult mortality reductions, which became evident by studying trends in the record modal age at death.

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Figures

Figure 1.
Figure 1.
Mode (M) and Median (Md) Ages at Death, and Life Expectancy (LE) for the Life Table Age Distribution of Deaths for Swedish Total Population in 1900 and 2000 Source: Human Mortality Database (2/4/2009).
Figure 2.
Figure 2.
Maximum, Modal, and Median Ages at Death, and Life Expectancy at Birth for Swedish Total Population, 1840 to 2006 Source: Human Mortality Database (2/4/2009). Note: Maximum age is calculated from 1861 to 2006.
Figure 3.
Figure 3.
Countries Holding the Record Modal and Median Ages at Death and the Record Life Expectancy at Birth (1840–2005), and the Best-Fitting Lines Source: Human Mortality Database (2/4/2009). Note: AUS = Australia, BEL = Belgium, CAN = Canada, DNK = Denmark, FRA = France, ICL = Iceland, JPN = Japan, NLD = the Netherlands, NOR = Norway, NZL = New Zealand, ESP = Spain, SWE = Sweden, CHE = Switzerland.
Figure 3.
Figure 3.
Countries Holding the Record Modal and Median Ages at Death and the Record Life Expectancy at Birth (1840–2005), and the Best-Fitting Lines Source: Human Mortality Database (2/4/2009). Note: AUS = Australia, BEL = Belgium, CAN = Canada, DNK = Denmark, FRA = France, ICL = Iceland, JPN = Japan, NLD = the Netherlands, NOR = Norway, NZL = New Zealand, ESP = Spain, SWE = Sweden, CHE = Switzerland.
Figure 4.
Figure 4.
Modal and Median Ages at Death, and Life Expectancy Under a Siler Mortality Change Model
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

    1. Bongaarts J. “Long-Range Trends in Adult Mortality: Models and Projection Methods”. Demography. 2005;42:23–49. - PubMed
    1. Bongaarts J. “How Long Will We Live?”. Population and Development Review. 2006;32:605–28.
    1. Canudas-Romo V. Decomposition Methods in Demography. Amsterdam: Rozenberg Publishers; 2003.
    1. Canudas-Romo V. “The Modal Age at Death and the Shifting Mortality Hypothesis”. Demographic Research. 2008;19:1179–204.
    1. Canudas-Romo V, Schoen R. “Age-Specific Contributions to Changes in the Period and Cohort Life Expectancy”. Demographic Research. 2005;13:63–82.

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