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Review
. 2010 Feb;7(2):675-97.
doi: 10.3390/ijerph7020675. Epub 2010 Feb 24.

The changing disease-scape in the third epidemiological transition

Kristin Harper  1 , George Armelagos
Affiliations
Review

The changing disease-scape in the third epidemiological transition

Kristin Harper et al. Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2010 Feb.

Abstract

The epidemiological transition model describes the changing relationship between humans and their diseases. The first transition occurred with the shift to agriculture about 10,000 YBP, resulting in a pattern of infectious and nutritional diseases still evident today. In the last two centuries, some populations have undergone a second transition, characterized by a decline in infectious disease and rise in degenerative disease. We are now in the throes of a third epidemiological transition, in which a resurgence of familiar infections is accompanied by an array of novel diseases, all of which have the potential to spread rapidly due to globalization.

Keywords: degenerative disease; epidemiological transition; globalization; infectious disease.

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Figures

Figure 1.
Figure 1.
Birth rates, death rates, and population size over the last two centuries in four different areas, illustrating the demographic changes that prompted the development of the epidemiological transition model. Modified from Omran [4] with permission to reprint from John Wiley and Sons.
Figure 2.
Figure 2.
Changes in mortality patterns in the 20th century United States [Based on data drawn from 147–150].
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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