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. 2010 May;13(5):488-93.
doi: 10.3779/j.issn.1009-3419.2010.05.20.

[Estimation and projection of lung cancer incidence and mortality in China]

[Article in Chinese]
Wanqing Chen  1 , Siwei Zhang, Xiaonong Zou
Affiliations

[Estimation and projection of lung cancer incidence and mortality in China]

[Article in Chinese]
Wanqing Chen et al. Zhongguo Fei Ai Za Zhi. 2010 May.

Abstract
in English, Chinese

Background and objective: The aim of this study is to analyze lung cancer epidemiological trend and estimate lung cancer burden in China.

Methods: Lung cancer age specific mortality and incidence rate ratios in different areas and sexes were obtained from national cancer registration database in 2004 and 2005. Cancer crude mortalities were retrieved from the database of the third national death survey, 2004-2005. Age specific incidence rates of lung cancer were calculated using mortality and M/I ratios. Annual percent change (APC) was estimated by log regression model using Joint Point software by analyzing pooled lung cancer incidence data from 10 cancer registries from 1988 to 2005.

Results: The total estimated new cases and deaths of lung cancer in 2005 were 536 407 and 475 768 which were higher in male than in female. There was 1.63% increase of lung cancer incidence per year from 1988 to 2005, however, the trend showed a slowdown by 0.55% annually after adjusted by age.

Conclusion: Lung cancer is one of major health issues in China and the burden is getting serious. Ageing population is main cause for increasing incidence and mortality of lung cancer. Effective cancer prevention and control is imperative. Especially, tobacco control should be carried out in statewide.

背景与目的: 本研究旨在探讨我国肺癌的流行特征，对发病和死亡进行估计。

方法: 对全国肿瘤登记中心收集的全国各肿瘤登记处1988年-2005年18年间上报的肺癌发病和死亡登记的数据资料进行整理。利用2004年和2005年全国第三次死因回顾抽样调查数据中肺癌的死亡率，结合同时期肿瘤登记数据的死亡发病比，估计目前我国肺癌的发病率。选取数据较为齐全的北京、上海、湖北武汉、黑龙江哈尔滨、河北磁县、江苏启东、浙江嘉善、广西扶绥、福建长乐、河南林州10个登记处的资料，通过肺癌发病率的年变化率计算，分析18年间肺癌流行趋势。

结果: 2005年我国肺癌新发病例数为536 407人，死亡病例数475 768人，通过对10个登记处18年发病死亡数据分析，登记点肺癌发病率呈现逐年上升趋势，年平均增长1.63%，但年龄调整后每年降低0.55%。

结论: 肺癌是影响我国居民健康的主要恶性肿瘤，发病和死亡呈现逐年上升趋势，主要的原因是人口老龄化导致的，必须采用积极有效的防治措施。

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Figures

1
1
全国10个登记点1988年-2005年肺癌发病率变化趋势 The tendency of the incidence rate for lung cancer in the 10 registries during the year 1988 to 2005
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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