Pseudocontingencies can override genuine contingencies between multiple cues

Abstract

The cognitive process of contingency assessment has traditionally been conceived as an inference from the joint frequencies (table cell entries) of correlated cues. Alternatively, pseudocontingency (PC) inferences are derived from the alignment of separate base rate trends (table marginals). The present research extends PCs to the simultaneous assessment of six contingencies between four personality cues. Consistently obtained PC effects, reflecting accurately assessed base rate trends, were unaffected by the actual cue intercorrelations, which were zero or consistent or inconsistent with the PCs. The functional value of PC inferences is discussed. Although PCs can be misleading, they afford approximations of actually existing correlations that suffice under many, although not under all, conditions.