The dwelling-type choices of older Canadians and future housing demand: an investigation using the Aging and Social Support Survey (GSS16)

Abstract

Using the 2002 Aging and Social Support Survey (GSS16), multinomial logit regression, and cohort-component projection techniques, this study explored how social support networks, health, and economic characteristics have shaped the residential choices of older Canadians, and predicts how they are likely to do so in the future. It focused on the distribution of 55-to-75-year-olds across three private-dwelling types: general community living, age-restricted housing, and age-restricted housing with nursing care. The analysis shows that social support characteristics are the strongest predictors of dwelling type, meaning that individuals appear to choose their dwellings largely on the basis of their social needs and wants, rather than on their economic or health characteristics. The analysis also indicates an increased age-specific demand for all dwelling types in the future, but with a reduction of over 2 million older Canadians living in dwellings in the general community between 2002 and 2022.