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Review
. 2010 Sep 27;365(1554):2779-91.
doi: 10.1098/rstb.2010.0133.

Dimensions of global population projections: what do we know about future population trends and structures?

Wolfgang Lutz  1 , Samir K C
Affiliations
Review

Dimensions of global population projections: what do we know about future population trends and structures?

Wolfgang Lutz et al. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci. .

Abstract

The total size of the world population is likely to increase from its current 7 billion to 8-10 billion by 2050. This uncertainty is because of unknown future fertility and mortality trends in different parts of the world. But the young age structure of the population and the fact that in much of Africa and Western Asia, fertility is still very high makes an increase by at least one more billion almost certain. Virtually, all the increase will happen in the developing world. For the second half of the century, population stabilization and the onset of a decline are likely. In addition to the future size of the population, its distribution by age, sex, level of educational attainment and place of residence are of specific importance for studying future food security. The paper provides a detailed discussion of different relevant dimensions in population projections and an evaluation of the methods and assumptions used in current global population projections and in particular those produced by the United Nations and by IIASA.

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Figures

Figure 1.
Figure 1.
Total world population in billions: probabilistic projections until 2100. Yellow, 95% interval; green, 60%; blue, 20% and extensions to 2200. The scenarios shown combine different levels of total fertility rate as indicated with the assumption that life-expectancy continues to increase up to a maximum level of 120 years. Source: Lutz & Scherbov (2008).
Figure 2.
Figure 2.
(a) China, (b) India and (c) sub-Saharan Africa: projected trends in the total population by level of highest educational attainment (children below age 15 in grey at the bottom).
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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