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Review
. 2010 Sep 27;365(1554):2853-67.
doi: 10.1098/rstb.2010.0134.

Livestock production: recent trends, future prospects

Philip K Thornton  1
Affiliations
Review

Livestock production: recent trends, future prospects

Philip K Thornton. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci. .

Abstract

The livestock sector globally is highly dynamic. In developing countries, it is evolving in response to rapidly increasing demand for livestock products. In developed countries, demand for livestock products is stagnating, while many production systems are increasing their efficiency and environmental sustainability. Historical changes in the demand for livestock products have been largely driven by human population growth, income growth and urbanization and the production response in different livestock systems has been associated with science and technology as well as increases in animal numbers. In the future, production will increasingly be affected by competition for natural resources, particularly land and water, competition between food and feed and by the need to operate in a carbon-constrained economy. Developments in breeding, nutrition and animal health will continue to contribute to increasing potential production and further efficiency and genetic gains. Livestock production is likely to be increasingly affected by carbon constraints and environmental and animal welfare legislation. Demand for livestock products in the future could be heavily moderated by socio-economic factors such as human health concerns and changing socio-cultural values. There is considerable uncertainty as to how these factors will play out in different regions of the world in the coming decades.

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Figures

Figure 1.
Figure 1.
(a) Number of chickens, carcass weight and egg production per animal from 1961 to 2008, global. (b) Number of bovines (cattle and buffaloes), carcass weight and cattle milk production per animal from 1961 to 2008, global. (c) Number of pigs and carcass weight from 1961 to 2008, global. (d) Number of sheep, goats and carcass weights from 1961 to 2008, global. (e) Number of camels and carcass weight from 1961 to 2008, global. Data from FAO (2010).
Figure 1.
Figure 1.
(a) Number of chickens, carcass weight and egg production per animal from 1961 to 2008, global. (b) Number of bovines (cattle and buffaloes), carcass weight and cattle milk production per animal from 1961 to 2008, global. (c) Number of pigs and carcass weight from 1961 to 2008, global. (d) Number of sheep, goats and carcass weights from 1961 to 2008, global. (e) Number of camels and carcass weight from 1961 to 2008, global. Data from FAO (2010).
Figure 2.
Figure 2.
(a) Projected number of (i) bovines and (ii) sheep and goats to 2050 in the ‘reference world’. (b) Projected number of (i) pigs and (ii) poultry to 2050 in the ‘reference world’. CWANA, Central and West Asia and North Africa; ESAP, East and South Asia and the Pacific; LAC, Latin America and the Caribbean; NAE, North America and Europe; SSA, sub-Saharan Africa. Data from Rosegrant et al. (2009).
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