Unresolved questions concerning human papillomavirus infection and transmission: a modelling perspective

Abstract

Mathematical transmission models are widely used to forecast the potential impact of interventions such as vaccination and to inform the development of health policy. Effective vaccines are now available for the prevention of cervical cancer and other diseases attributable to human papillomavirus (HPV). Considerable uncertainties remain regarding the characterisation of HPV infection and its sequelae, infectivity, and both vaccine-conferred and naturally-acquired immunity. In this review, we discuss the key knowledge gaps that impact on our ability to develop accurate models of HPV transmission and vaccination.