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. 2010 Oct;100(10):1856-60.
doi: 10.2105/AJPH.2010.191916. Epub 2010 Aug 19.

Gun shows and gun violence: fatally flawed study yields misleading results

Garen J Wintemute  1 , David Hemenway, Daniel Webster, Glenn Pierce, Anthony A Braga
Affiliations

Gun shows and gun violence: fatally flawed study yields misleading results

Garen J Wintemute et al. Am J Public Health. 2010 Oct.

Abstract

A widely publicized but unpublished study of the relationship between gun shows and gun violence is being cited in debates about the regulation of gun shows and gun commerce. We believe the study is fatally flawed. A working paper entitled "The Effect of Gun Shows on Gun-Related Deaths: Evidence from California and Texas" outlined this study, which found no association between gun shows and gun-related deaths. We believe the study reflects a limited understanding of gun shows and gun markets and is not statistically powered to detect even an implausibly large effect of gun shows on gun violence. In addition, the research contains serious ascertainment and classification errors, produces results that are sensitive to minor specification changes in key variables and in some cases have no face validity, and is contradicted by 1 of its own authors' prior research. The study should not be used as evidence in formulating gun policy.

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References

    1. Duggan M, Hjalmarsson R, Jacob BA. The effect of gun shows on gun-related deaths: Evidence from California and Texas. Working Paper 14371, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA; 2008. Available at: http://www.nber.org/papers/w14371. Accessed October 2, 2008
    1. Gun shows do not increase homicides or suicides [press release] Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan News Service; October 1, 2008. Available at: http://www.ns.umich.edu/htdocs/releases/story.php?id=6759. Accessed October 2, 2008.
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    1. Wintemute G, Hemenway D, Webster D, Pierce G, Braga AA. Letter to Mark Duggan, Randi Hjalmarsson, and Brian Jacob. December 1, 2008. Available at: http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/12/01/the-gun-show-loophole-revis.... Accessed December 1, 2008
    1. Duggan M, Hjalmarsson R, Jacob B. Letter to Garen Wintemute, David Hemenway, Daniel Webster, Glenn Pierce, and Anthony Braga. December 14, 2008. Available at: http://www.ucdmc.ucdavis.edu/vprp. Accessed August 12, 2010.

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