Implications of demographics on future blood supply: a population-based cross-sectional study

Abstract

Background: Data on blood recipients are sparse and unconnected to data on blood donors. The objective was to analyze the impact of the demographic change on future blood demand and supply in a German federal state.

Study design and methods: A population-based cross-sectional study was conducted. For all in-hospital transfused red blood cells (RBCs; n = 95,477), in the German federal state Mecklenburg-Pomerania in 2005, characteristics of the patient and the blood donor (118,406 blood donations) were obtained. Population data were used to predict blood demand and supply until 2020.

Results: By 2020 the population increase of those aged 65 years or more (+26.4%) in Mecklenburg-Pomerania will be paralleled by a decrease of the potential donor population (18-68 years; -16.1%). Assuming stable rates per age group until 2020, the demand for in-hospital blood transfusions will increase by approximately 25% (24,000 RBC units) while blood donations will decrease by approximately 27% (32,000 RBC units). The resulting, predicted shortfall is 47% of demand for in-hospital patients (56,000 RBC units). Validation using historical data (1997-2007) showed that the model predicted the RBC demand with a deviation of only 1.2%. Demographic changes are particularly pronounced in former East Germany, but by 2030 most European countries will face a similar situation. The decrease of younger age groups requires an increase of blood donation rates and interdisciplinary approaches to reduce the need for transfusion to maintain sufficient blood supply.

Conclusions: Demography is a major determinant of future transfusion demand. All efforts should be made by Western societies to systematically obtain data on blood donors and recipients to develop strategies to meet future blood demand.