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. 2011 Jan;22(1):13-22.
doi: 10.1007/s10552-010-9660-0. Epub 2010 Oct 22.

Do changes in cigarette design influence the rise in adenocarcinoma of the lung?

David M Burns  1 , Christy M Anderson, Nigel Gray
Affiliations

Do changes in cigarette design influence the rise in adenocarcinoma of the lung?

David M Burns et al. Cancer Causes Control. 2011 Jan.

Abstract

Background: Incidence rates for adenocarcinoma of the lung are increasing and are higher in the United States than in many other developed countries. We examine whether these trends may be associated with changes in cigarette design.

Methods: Lung cancer risk equations based on observations during 1960-1972 from the American Cancer Society Cancer Prevention Study I are applied to 5-year birth cohort-specific estimates of changes in smoking behaviors to predict birth cohort-specific rates of squamous cell carcinoma and adenocarcinoma of the lung among US White men for the period 1973-2000. These expected rates are compared to observed rates for the same birth cohorts of White men in the US Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) data.

Results: Changes in smoking behaviors over the past several decades adequately explain the changes in squamous cell carcinoma rates observed in the SEER data. However, predicted rates for adenocarcinoma do not match the observed SEER data without inclusion of a term increasing the risk for adenocarcinoma with the duration of smoking after 1965.

Conclusion: The risk of developing squamous cell carcinoma from smoking appears to have remained stable in the United States over the past several decades; however, the risk of adenocarcinoma has increased substantially in a pattern temporally associated with changes in cigarette design.

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Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Comparison of SEER squamous cell carcinoma incidence rates for 5-year birth cohorts of White men by single calendar year from 1973 to 2000 to the estimates using the CPS I risk equations and the adjustments described previously, but with no adjustment for years of smoking after 1950
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
Comparison of SEER adenocarcinoma incidence rates for 5-year birth cohorts of White men by single calendar year from 1973 to 2000 to the estimates using the CPS I Risk equations and the adjustments described previously, but with no adjustment for years of smoking after 1950
Fig. 3
Fig. 3
Standardized residuals for the difference between SEER and predicted rates of adenocarcinoma of the lung without adjustment for calendar year plotted by calendar year
Fig. 4
Fig. 4
Comparison of SEER adenocarcinoma incidence rates for 5-year birth cohorts of White men by single calendar year from 1973 to 2000 to the estimated rates with adjustment for years of smoking after 1950
Fig. 5
Fig. 5
Standardized residuals for the difference between SEER and predicted rates of adenocarcinoma of the lung plotted by calendar year
Fig. 6
Fig. 6
Comparison of predicted and observed birth cohort–specific rates of adenocarcinoma of the lung for White men by calendar year. The dashed lines are the unadjusted predicted rates, the solid lines are the adjusted rates, and the points are the values derived from the SEER data
Fig. 7
Fig. 7
Australian and US adenocarcinoma as a proportion of designated lung cancers. Data for the Australian national cancer registry provided by Helen Farrugia, Director Information Systems, Cancer Epidemiology Centre, The Cancer Council Victoria
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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