Volunteer effect and compromised randomization in the Mayo Project of screening for lung cancer

Abstract

It has been confirmed recently that the volunteer effect in lung cancer screening is characterized by higher lung cancer mortality risk in self-selected screening participants. The Mayo Lung Project, the most influential trial of screening for lung cancer ever completed, was conducted in nonvolunteer Mayo Clinic outpatients, with a peculiar study design that rendered the randomization vulnerable to the volunteer effect. Of all nonvolunteers randomized in the Mayo Lung Project, only those allocated in the screened group were asked consent to participate in the trial. The final Mayo Lung Project report stated that 655 randomized nonvolunteers refused screening and were excluded from the study, thus documenting violation of the rule that no selection should occur after randomization. The long-term follow-up of the Mayo Lung Project showed an enigmatic result which has never been explained: the lung cancer mortality was 13% higher in the screening intervention group than in the control group [4.4 (95% CI 3.9-4.9) vs. 3.9 (95% CI 3.5-4.4) per 1,000 person-years; P = 0.09]. Such overrepresented mortality is consistent with the volunteer effect and supports the concept that the Mayo Lung Project randomization was compromised by the post-randomization self-selection of participant nonvolunteers.