Effect of population screening for type 2 diabetes on mortality: long-term follow-up of the Ely cohort

Abstract

Aims/hypothesis: The aim of this study was to assess the impact of invitation to screening for type 2 diabetes and related cardiovascular risk factors on population mortality.

Methods: This was a parallel-group population-based cohort study including all men and women aged 40-65 years, free of known diabetes, registered with a single practice in Ely, UK (n = 4,936). In 1990-1992, approximately one-third (n = 1,705) were randomly selected to receive an invitation to screening for diabetes (with an OGTT) and related cardiovascular risk factors. In the remaining two-thirds of the population, 1,705 individuals were randomly selected for invitation to screening in 2000-2003 and 1,526 were not invited at any point during the follow-up period. All individuals were flagged for mortality until January 2008.

Results: There were 345 deaths between 1990 and 1999 (median 10 years follow-up). Compared with those not invited, individuals who were invited to the 1990-1992 screening round had a non-significant 21% lower all-cause mortality (HR 0.79 [95% CI 0.63-1.00], p = 0.05) after adjustment for age, sex and deprivation. There were 291 deaths between 2000 and 2008 (median 8 years follow-up), with no significant difference in mortality between invited and non-invited participants in 2000-2003. Compared with the non-invited group, participants who attended for screening at any time point had a significantly lower mortality and those who did not attend had a significantly higher mortality.

Conclusions/interpretation: Invitation to screening was associated with a non-significant reduction in mortality in the Ely cohort between 1990 and 1999, but this was not replicated in the period 2000-2008. This study contributes to the evidence concerning the potential benefits of population screening for diabetes and related cardiovascular risk factors.