Modelling the epidemiology of hepatitis B in New Zealand

Abstract

Hepatitis B is a vaccine preventable disease caused by the hepatitis B virus (HBV) that can induce potentially fatal liver damage. It has the second highest mortality rate of all vaccine preventable diseases in New Zealand. Vaccination against HBV was introduced in New Zealand in 1988, and the country is now categorised with overall low endemicity but with areas of both high and medium endemic levels. We present an SECIR compartmental mathematical model, with the population divided into age classes, for the transmission of HBV using local data on incidence of infection and vaccination coverage. We estimate the basic reproduction number, R(0), to be 1.53, and show that the vaccination campaign has substantially reduced this below one. However, a large number of carriers remain in the population acting as a source of infection.