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. 2010 Nov 23;107(47):20223-7.
doi: 10.1073/pnas.1008162107. Epub 2010 Nov 8.

Contribution potential of glaciers to water availability in different climate regimes

Georg Kaser  1 , Martin Grosshauser, Ben Marzeion
Affiliations

Contribution potential of glaciers to water availability in different climate regimes

Georg Kaser et al. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. .

Abstract

Although reliable figures are often missing, considerable detrimental changes due to shrinking glaciers are universally expected for water availability in river systems under the influence of ongoing global climate change. We estimate the contribution potential of seasonally delayed glacier melt water to total water availability in large river systems. We find that the seasonally delayed glacier contribution is largest where rivers enter seasonally arid regions and negligible in the lowlands of river basins governed by monsoon climates. By comparing monthly glacier melt contributions with population densities in different altitude bands within each river basin, we demonstrate that strong human dependence on glacier melt is not collocated with highest population densities in most basins.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no conflict of interest.

Figures

Fig. 1.
Fig. 1.
Left column: Monthly mass budget of the glacierized area, derived from CRU climatological data. Shown are monthly accumulation onto the glacier surface (dark blue), monthly ablation (light blue), and seasonally delayed runoff from glaciers (blue shading). Numbers at top center are the percentage of annual precipitation on the glacier that runs off as seasonally delayed melt water. Right column: Effect of seasonal delay on water input as a function of the altitude, starting at the altitude of the lowest glacier tongue and ending at the river’s estuary. Lower limits zi of the altitude bands are given together with the percentage of total basin area (increasing from 0% at the altitude of the lowest glacier tongue to 100% at the river’s estuary). Shown are the climatological mean annual variation of precipitation above zi (Pz, dark blue), seasonal modification of Pz by glacier storage and release (light blue), MMP (red), and PIX (gray bars).
Fig. 2.
Fig. 2.
World map showing the location (shaded green), MMP (red lines), and PIX (gray bars) of each of the river basins considered in this study. The horizontal axis of the small plots is the same as in Fig. 1, Right column. The vertical scale of the small plots is held constant. Numeric values are provided in the SI Appendix.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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