Pandemic influenza's 500th anniversary

Abstract

It is impossible to know with certainty the first time that an influenza virus infected humans or when the first influenza pandemic occurred. However, many historians agree that the year 1510 a.d.-500 years ago-marks the first recognition of pandemic influenza. On this significant anniversary it is timely to ask: what were the circumstances surrounding the emergence of the 1510 pandemic, and what have we learned about this important disease over the subsequent five centuries? We conclude that in recent decades significant progress has been made in diagnosis, prevention, control, and treatment of influenza. It seems likely that, in the foreseeable future, we may be able to greatly reduce the burden of influenza pandemics with improved vaccines and other scientific and public health approaches.

Figure 1

Five centuries of documented influenza pandemics [7] with a timeline of selected significant events related to understanding and controlling influenza, 1510–2010. *The pandemic of 1977–1978 is often not considered a pandemic, because it represented the return of a 1950s-era descendant of the 1918 pandemic virus [7].