Secular decreases in fracture rates 1986-2006 for Manitoba, Canada: a population-based analysis

Abstract

Summary: We examined trends in fracture rates over 20 years in the Province of Manitoba, Canada. Hip fractures, major low-trauma fractures, and high-trauma fractures declined significantly from 1986 to 2006.

Introduction: Secular decreases in hip fracture rates have been reported in some countries. Whether this phenomenon applies to other fracture sites is not well described.

Methods: We used 20 years of data from the Population Health Research Data Repository for the Province of Manitoba, Canada. Age-adjusted fracture rates were calculated for men and women age 50 years and older 1986-2006 according to fracture site and mechanism (presence/absence of external injury codes). Generalized linear models with generalized estimating equations were used to derive adjusted annual rates and test for linear change in men and women.

Results: Major low-trauma fractures (hip, forearm, spine, and humerus) showed a significant annual linear decline in women (-1.2% [95% CI, -0.7% to -1.8%]) and in men (-0.4% [95% CI, -0.7% to -0.2%]). Hip fracture showed a significant annual decline for both sexes, while forearm and humerus fractures showed a significant decline only in women. The only fracture category that did not show a significant annual decline in either sex was the spine. The observed annual reduction in high-trauma fractures was even larger and did not show a sex difference (-1.8% [95% CI, -2.8% to -0.7%]).

Conclusion: We observed a decrease in both low-trauma and high-trauma fracture rates over the study period. This decline was apparent in years prior to widespread osteoporosis testing or availability of modern pharmacotherapy.