Do smoke-free laws affect revenues in pubs and restaurants?

Abstract

In the debate about laws regulating smoking in restaurants and pubs, there has been some controversy as to whether smoke-free laws would reduce revenues in the hospitality industry. Norway presents an interesting case for three reasons. First, it was among the first countries to implement smoke-free laws, so it is possible to assess the long-term effects. Second, it has a cold climate so if there is a negative effect on revenue one would expect to find it in Norway. Third, the data from Norway are detailed enough to distinguish between revenue from pubs and restaurants. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) intervention analysis of bi-monthly observations of revenues in restaurants and pubs show that the law did not have a statistically significant long-term effect on revenue in restaurants or on restaurant revenue as a share of personal consumption. Similar analysis for pubs shows that there was no significant long-run effect on pub revenue.

Fig. 1

Restaurant revenue in Norway, 1999–2007 (overall, as a share of personal consumption and seasonally differenced)

Fig. 2

Pub revenue in Norway, 1999–2007 (overall, as a share of personal consumption and seasonally differenced)